Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) has widened her advantage over incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) in the state's closely watched Senate contest, according to the latest tally from Decision Desk HQ. Peltola now leads by 2,517 first-choice votes, up from a 637-vote edge reported last week. She holds 48.63 percent of the vote, while Sullivan has 47.47 percent; Republican candidate Gerald Heikes trails with 2.23 percent.
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system means a candidate must secure a majority of first-choice votes to win outright. If no one clears 50 percent after all first-choice ballots are counted, an instant runoff is triggered. In that process, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and their voters' second, third, and fourth choices are redistributed until someone reaches a majority.
Before the latest ballot drop, an analysis by the Alaska Beacon suggested Sullivan was favored in a potential runoff. But with Peltola's expanded lead, she would now prevail even if the race goes to an instant runoff.
Spoiler candidate drama
The race drew national attention after a third-party candidate with the same name as the incumbent—Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.—qualified for the general election ballot. The Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification if Sullivan lost, arguing the name similarity could confuse voters. A federal judge dismissed that case.
The Beacon's post-election analysis found little evidence of voter confusion between the senator and the spoiler candidate. However, a New York Times report alleged that Peltola and national Democrats helped recruit Sullivan Jr. to run. Peltola, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and Sullivan Jr. have all denied any involvement.
Legal battles and Trump's intervention
Separately, Peltola's campaign is suing the Alaska Division of Elections for access to records of rejected absentee ballots—a dispute that remains ongoing. President Trump has weighed in repeatedly, posting on Truth Social Tuesday morning: “Dan Sullivan PLUS Dan Sullivan wins the Alaska Election by thousands of votes. All votes going to the Fake Dan Sullivan, which was done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion, should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!)—Likewise the votes of the second fraudulent candidate, also put up by the Dems. There should be no question concerning this Rigged Election. Time is of the essence!!!”
Alaska's vote count is expected to continue for several more days as election officials transport ballots from remote areas. Ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive up to 15 days later and still be counted.
The outcome of this race could determine control of the Senate. As Mississippi and Alaska Senate races remain unresolved, both parties are watching closely. Peltola's campaign is also involved in litigation over ballot access, adding another layer of uncertainty to the final result.
