Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) is trailing his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Mary Peltola, by five points in the race for Alaska's Senate seat, according to a new AARP poll released Thursday. The survey, conducted by the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, shows Peltola with 46 percent support among likely voters, while Sullivan garners 41 percent, leaving 7 percent undecided.
The poll also reveals a fragmented field: 4 percent back independent Dan J. Sullivan Jr., and 3 percent support Republican Gerald Heikes. Under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, voters will rank candidates, and Peltola maintains an advantage in later rounds. When asked for their second choice, 50 percent pick Peltola compared with 43 percent for Sullivan; for third choice, Peltola leads 51 percent to 45 percent.
Peltola's support is notably strong among younger voters, independents, and women. She leads Sullivan by 26 points among voters aged 18 to 49, by 32 points among independents, and by 18 points among women. Her Democratic base is also more enthusiastic: 91 percent of Democrats express strong support for her, while only 83 percent of Republicans are firmly behind Sullivan.
Sullivan, however, holds an edge among older demographics, leading by 7 points among voters 50 and older, 8 points among those 65 and older, and 6 points among men. These numbers reflect a generational and gender divide in the race.
Peltola first captured national attention in 2022 when she won a special election to Alaska's at-large House seat, becoming the first Democrat to represent the state in the House in over five decades. She later won a full term but was defeated in 2024 by Republican Nick Begich. Democrats view Peltola as a rare viable candidate in a state that has trended Republican in federal races, but the state's conservative lean and Sullivan's incumbency make the race an uphill climb for the party.
The AARP poll was conducted from September 8-11, surveying 800 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The results come as the Alaska Senate race emerges as a key test for Democratic strategy in northern states.
Sullivan, who is seeking a third term, has emphasized his seniority and committee roles, while Peltola has focused on issues like energy independence and support for Alaska's resource development. The state's oil and gas sector remains a critical backdrop, with recent BLM proposals aiming to streamline Alaska oil projects potentially influencing voters' economic concerns.
Political analysts note that while Peltola's early lead is significant, the state's ranked-choice system and the eventual consolidation of Republican voters could shift the dynamics. The race is one of several competitive Senate contests that could determine control of the chamber, and national groups are already spending heavily.
As the campaign heats up, both candidates are likely to sharpen their contrasts on issues such as federal spending, energy policy, and rural development. The poll's findings suggest that Peltola's appeal among independents and younger voters could be a decisive factor, but Sullivan's strength with older Alaskans may keep the race within reach.
