The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a cornerstone of U.S. defense policy for 65 years, is facing an unprecedented threat this year as partisan divisions over spending and the Iran conflict have stalled its progress. The annual bill, which sets Pentagon policy and funding priorities, is at risk of failing for the first time in its history, a development that would shatter a long-standing tradition of bipartisan support.
The core dispute centers on the bill's topline figure. The Trump administration has requested $1.15 trillion for defense, a number that could rise to $1.5 trillion if Congress passes a third reconciliation bill. Democrats, however, argue that the figure must be cut by hundreds of billions of dollars and have also demanded restrictions on the ongoing war against Iran, which they say lacks congressional authorization.
Mackenzie Eaglen, a defense budget expert at the American Enterprise Institute, described the current situation as the widest gap she has ever seen between a "nightmare scenario"—where the NDAA fails—and the possibility of a defense bill bundled with a reconciliation package. "The politics are absolutely dismal between the two branches right now," she said. Eaglen warned that breaking the streak could have lasting consequences: "Once red lines are crossed, it is difficult to go backward. I fear the necessary and bipartisan NDAA is fragile in this new era but hope I'm wrong."
House and Senate Show Deep Divisions
The bill's rocky path was evident in June when the House Armed Services Committee passed its version by a 44-12 vote, with only half of the committee's Democrats supporting it—a sharp departure from the usual near-unanimous Democratic support. In July, the full House passed its NDAA by a narrow 216-212 vote, again showing a significant erosion of bipartisan backing.
The Senate has faced even greater hurdles. In July, senators failed to advance their version of the NDAA on a 50-46 procedural vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. Democrats blocked the motion over concerns about both defense and non-defense spending levels, as well as the administration's handling of the Iran conflict, which resumed in February without congressional authorization.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) called the Democratic move "unprecedented." A defense industry expert noted that Republicans are likely to hold firm on the $1.15 trillion figure, but that Democrats could use the negotiating process to extract concessions. However, even if a compromise is reached, the bill could still face a veto from President Trump.
Negotiations Underway, But Challenges Remain
As of late this month, House and Senate lawmakers are engaged in informal negotiations to find a path forward. According to a defense insider, staff-level work on the bill is complete, and unresolved issues have been elevated to the staff director level. The "Big Four"—the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees—are expected to take up the legislation after the November midterm elections, with a goal of finalizing it by Thanksgiving.
Another contentious issue is the Pentagon's push to rename the Department of Defense to the "Department of War." Both the House and Senate versions of the NDAA include provisions to codify the name change, but Democrats have dismissed it as unnecessary semantics.
The most pressing matter remains the Iran conflict, which has already cost $47 billion—an increase of more than $3 billion in the last month—and Trump is reportedly considering strikes against Tehran after the midterms. The Senate previously defeated a House resolution directing withdrawal of U.S. troops, but growing GOP unease over the president's handling of the war, combined with a possible Democratic takeover of the chamber, could open new avenues for congressional oversight.
Despite the challenges, leaders on both sides express determination to pass the bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told Punchbowl News, "It's very important. You know, we're in very dangerous times. There's a lot going on. We have to come together and get it done." Michael Herson, president of American Defense International, predicted the process will be bumpy but ultimately successful, noting that it has been bumpy in recent years as well. As the midterms approach, the fate of the NDAA—and the 65-year streak—hangs in the balance.
