A newly formed group calling itself a "market integrity watchdog" launched a six-figure advertising campaign in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday morning, directly targeting the prediction market platform Kalshi. The group, FairPredicts, placed ads in Metro stations, on mobile box trucks, and across social media platforms like X, using a design that mirrors Kalshi's own April campaign.
The ads accuse Kalshi of misleading users. One ad states, "Kalshi Lie #3: 'We aren't the house,' if Kalshi is not the house, why do they win when you lose?" It goes on to claim that Kalshi Trading LLC is "trading against you." This mimics Kalshi's recent bus stop ad that read, "Kalshi Rule #3…We aren't the house."
The campaign began just hours before a Senate Commerce Subcommittee hearing titled "No Sure Bets: Protecting Sports Integrity in America," which focused on gambling and prediction markets. NBC first reported on the group's launch and ad blitz.
FairPredicts is a political nonprofit, meaning it does not have to disclose its donors publicly. When asked about who is funding the effort, a Kalshi spokesperson, Elisabeth Diana, suggested it might be backed by entrenched interests. "It's not surprising that entrenched interests are seeding false narratives to discredit prediction markets. Smells like a casino or sportsbooks-led effort," Diana told The Hill. FairPredicts declined to comment on its donors.
Kalshi Trading LLC is a separate entity within Kalshi Incorporation, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission records. Recent lawsuits have alleged that this entity acts like a house in traditional gambling by providing liquidity. Diana countered that market makers are standard in financial markets, including stock exchanges, and that on Kalshi, institutional market makers account for about 7% or less of volume. "Like any financial market, including the stock market, market makers are industry standard because they help bootstrap liquidity," she said.
FairPredicts also released a 15-second ad featuring Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour saying, "There is no house, anybody can win." A narrator then mentions Kalshi Trading LLC, claiming users are "playing against trillion-dollar market makers." Diana responded that Kalshi Trading is "unprofitable and represents a very small percent of our volume. This is a very common and regulated practice in our industry."
Kalshi is considering legal action against FairPredicts, Diana added. The platform has been ramping up its own messaging in Washington this year, including ads last month that sought to address concerns by stating it bans insider trading, does not allow death markets, and operates under U.S. law.
Lawmakers on Capitol Hill have increased scrutiny on prediction markets as they grow in popularity. Several bills have been introduced to ban insider trading on these platforms, including by government officials. The Senate unanimously passed a rule earlier this month prohibiting senators from trading on prediction markets. This comes amid broader debates about the role of such markets, with the Trump administration recently filing a federal lawsuit against Minnesota over its prediction markets ban, citing federal override.
