Russia's military ambitions in Africa are facing a serious setback as the war in Ukraine continues to drain its resources. Last week, the Africa Corps—the Kremlin-controlled successor to the Wagner Group—was forced to withdraw from the northern Malian city of Kidal after a rebel offensive by the Azawad Liberation Front. The ethnic militia, which seeks independence for northern Mali, pushed Russian forces out of the area, and Moscow appears unable to mount a counteroffensive.
The losses extend beyond Kidal. Africa Corps units are reportedly pulling back from much of northern Mali, potentially ceding control over half the country's territory. Meanwhile, jihadist groups like Jamat Nasr al-Islam tak Musulmin have stepped up attacks, including a strike on the capital Bamako that killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara. The dual threat from separatists and jihadists underscores the fragility of the regimes Russia has been propping up in the Sahel.
Russia's troubles in Mali are part of a broader pattern of overstretch. With at least 30,000 troops lost per month in Ukraine, Moscow has little to spare for its African operations. The Africa Corps, now under the direct control of Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, was created to replace the Wagner Group and expand Russian influence in formerly Francophone West Africa. But the Ukraine war has sapped the resources needed to sustain that presence.
This is not the first time Russia has struggled to maintain its overseas footholds. Historically, Moscow has relied on military bases and proxy forces to project power, from Cuba and Vietnam to Syria. But the current conflict in Ukraine has exposed the limits of that strategy. As the Pentagon releases additional aid to Kyiv, the Kremlin's ability to juggle multiple fronts is increasingly in doubt.
The implications for the Sahel are significant. Russia has used the Africa Corps to prop up military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, replacing Western influence with its own. But the rebel gains in Mali could embolden similar movements in neighboring countries. If Russia cannot hold its ground in Mali, its credibility as a security guarantor across the region will erode.
Washington faces a difficult choice. While the Trump administration might be tempted to exploit Russia's vulnerability, aligning with the rebels is not a viable option. The Azawad Liberation Front and other groups are no more pro-Western than the governments they are fighting. As the recent departure of the acting U.S. envoy to Ukraine shows, policy coherence on Russia remains a challenge.
The better course, as some analysts argue, is to focus on supporting Ukraine. The more Kyiv weakens Russia's military, the less Moscow can sustain its African adventures. Should Russia eventually withdraw from the Sahel, the U.S. might find a new opening—but not by backing the same actors Russia leaves behind. The lesson of Afghanistan is clear: replacing one bad regime with another rarely ends well.
For now, Russia's grip on Mali is slipping, and the Kremlin has few options to reverse the trend. The war in Ukraine is not just reshaping Europe; it is redrawing the map of influence in Africa.
