The battle for Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District is headed to a runoff, pitting a Trump-aligned pastor against an establishment-backed state lawmaker. Decision Desk HQ projects that Jackson Lahmeyer, founder of Pastors for Trump, and Oklahoma state Rep. Mark Tedford (R) will face off again on August 25 after neither secured the 50% threshold needed to win outright on Tuesday.

The race to succeed Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.)—who won the Republican nomination for the state's open Senate seat Tuesday, as previously reported—drew ten GOP candidates in this reliably red district. The eventual nominee will face Democrat John Croisant, who ran unopposed in his primary, in November's general election.

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Lahmeyer, a Tulsa pastor and vocal Trump loyalist, has positioned himself as the standard-bearer for the MAGA movement. President Trump endorsed Lahmeyer, and both Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have visited his church. This race has become a proxy contest between the insurgent MAGA wing and the conservative establishment in Oklahoma.

Tedford, by contrast, has campaigned as the establishment conservative choice. He secured endorsements from the Oklahoma House Speaker and all three Tulsa County commissioners, and he has significantly outraised Lahmeyer—$347,885 to $289,786—though Lahmeyer's brand as a faith-driven Trump ally made him an early favorite.

Lahmeyer's name recognition got a boost from his 2022 Senate primary challenge to Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), where he lost by over 40 points. This time, he is running in a district that leans heavily Republican, making the primary the de facto contest for the seat.

The runoff will test the strength of Trump's endorsement in a state where his influence remains potent. Recent primaries in Georgia and elsewhere have shown mixed results for Trump-backed candidates, as noted in coverage of the Georgia GOP Senate runoff where Collins defeated Dooley. In Oklahoma, the MAGA-versus-establishment dynamic is playing out in a district that has been held by Republicans for decades.

Both candidates are expected to ramp up campaigning in the coming weeks, with Lahmeyer leaning on his pastoral network and Tedford emphasizing his legislative record. The outcome will signal whether the GOP base in eastern Oklahoma aligns more with Trump's populist message or the party's traditional fiscal conservatism.