A fresh NBC News and Telemundo survey reveals a significant swing among Latino voters toward the Democratic Party ahead of the midterm elections, with 59 percent expressing a preference for Democratic control of Congress compared to 35 percent favoring Republicans—a 24-point margin.
The poll, conducted among 800 registered Latino voters in late September, also paints a bleak picture for President Trump among this key demographic. Sixty-nine percent disapprove of his overall job performance, a stark contrast to the support he garnered in 2024 when Latino voters helped propel him to victory.
This shift marks a notable reversal from the 2024 election, where Trump made historic inroads with Latino voters, particularly with men. Vice President Harris won the Latino vote by just 3 points that year, a dramatic drop from President Biden's 25-point margin in 2020. Trump even carried Latino men by 2 points in 2024 after Biden had won that group by 18 points four years earlier. A recent Cook Political Report survey found that 18 percent of Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance.
The NBC News poll shows growing anti-GOP sentiment among Latinos, who constitute about 16 percent of the electorate. Sixty-two percent of respondents now view the Republican Party negatively, up from 46 percent in September 2024. However, the Democratic Party has not seen a corresponding surge in popularity. While 41 percent hold a positive view of Democrats (compared to 38 percent in 2024), negative sentiment has also risen, from 38 percent to 42 percent.
This complex dynamic—where voters are moving away from the GOP but not fully embracing Democrats—echoes broader challenges facing the Democratic brand even as they gain ground in polls.
The survey indicates heightened political engagement among Latino voters, with 54 percent saying they plan to vote to send a signal of opposition to Trump. Economic concerns are paramount: 65 percent believe Trump's policies have hurt economic conditions, and inflation and the cost of living top their list of national issues, followed by government corruption and threats to democracy.
Immigration remains a flashpoint. Sixty-seven percent of respondents say Trump's enforcement efforts have gone too far—a finding that underscores the GOP's delicate balancing act on immigration as it tries to hold onto its 2024 gains. On this issue, voters trust Democrats more to handle immigration overall, though the parties are tied on who would better protect the border.
Respondents also said they believe Democrats would do a better job protecting democracy and addressing the concerns of the Hispanic community. The poll, conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points and was fielded from September 21 to 28.
This data suggests that while Democrats may be regaining ground with Latino voters, the party cannot afford to take this bloc for granted. The GOP's outreach to working-class voters, including Latinos, remains a potent force, and the Democrats' lukewarm favorability ratings indicate a volatile electorate as November approaches.
