Alaska's open primary for governor has produced a top-four field, with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins emerging as the frontrunner. With nearly all votes counted, Kreiss-Tomkins secured about 22 percent of the vote, outpacing Democratic former state Sen. Tom Begich, who took roughly 20 percent, and Republican businesswoman Bernadette Wilson, who garnered about 10 percent. As of Wednesday morning, the fourth spot remained undecided, with several candidates still within striking distance.
The race to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) has been anything but predictable. More than a dozen candidates entered Tuesday's open primary, and the top four vote-getters now advance to a ranked-choice general election in November. The unusually crowded field reflects the fluid dynamics of Alaska politics, where ranked-choice voting has upended traditional partisan expectations.
Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative from Sitka, has positioned himself as a pragmatic progressive with deep roots in rural and coastal communities. His campaign has emphasized infrastructure, fisheries, and renewable energy development, appealing to a broad coalition of voters. Begich, a well-known figure in Alaska Democratic politics, entered the race with strong name recognition, but his nephew, Rep. Nick Begich III (R), is running for reelection to the House, creating a family split that may have complicated the elder Begich's bid.
Wilson, a conservative businesswoman, has focused her campaign on fiscal restraint and resource development, hoping to consolidate Republican support in a state where the GOP has historically dominated. The Cook Political Report currently rates the general election as "likely Republican," but the handicapper has noted that ranked-choice complexities and Dunleavy's lackluster approval ratings could make the race more competitive than usual.
In April, Cook Political Report's Matthew Klein wrote that "Democrats have plenty of work to do to prove they have a shot at a governorship they last won in 1998, but a competitive general election is within the realm of possibility." That assessment came after former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) opted to run for the Senate instead of governor, leaving the Democratic field without its strongest potential candidate. Peltola's decision has reshaped both races, and the Senate contest now features a ranked-choice showdown with Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.
The open primary system, which allows candidates from all parties to compete on a single ballot, has produced unpredictable outcomes in recent cycles. In 2022, the top-four format led to a Democratic victory in the House special election, a result that stunned many observers. This year, the crowded field vying for top-four spots has made it difficult for any single candidate to build a clear path to victory.
For Republicans, the split among conservative candidates could be a liability. Wilson is competing with several other GOP contenders for the remaining spots, and if more than one Republican advances, their votes could be siphoned in the ranked-choice runoff. Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich can consolidate progressive support and appeal to moderate voters who may be dissatisfied with the GOP field.
The fourth spot in the general election remains up in the air, with several candidates separated by a few hundred votes. The final tally is expected later this week, and the outcome could significantly alter the dynamics of the race. If a second Republican advances, the GOP may struggle to unify; if a Democrat or independent secures the spot, the general election could become a three-way contest with unpredictable consequences.
As Alaska's political landscape continues to evolve, the governor's race has drawn national attention. The state's ranked-choice system is being closely watched as a potential model for other states, and the outcome could have implications beyond Alaska's borders. With the general election set for November, both parties are gearing up for what promises to be a hard-fought campaign.
For now, Kreiss-Tomkins holds the lead, but the race is far from settled. The ranked-choice format means that the final outcome may not be known until all ballots are counted and reallocated, a process that could take days after the election. Voters will have a clear choice in November, but the path to victory remains anything but straightforward.
