The United States’ fertility rate has plunged over the past two decades, hitting a historic low in 2025, according to fresh CDC data. The rate now stands at 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, a drop of roughly 23% since 2007. While economic shocks like the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic played clear roles, a surprising new culprit has emerged: the smartphone.
A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research argues that the rollout of Apple’s iPhone may explain between one-third and one-half of the fertility decline between 2007 and 2011. The device’s rapid adoption appears to have had an outsized impact on births among women under 25, the researchers noted. The finding adds a technological twist to a demographic trend that has alarmed policymakers and economists alike.
The decline accelerated during the late-2000s recession, with the fertility rate falling about 7% between 2007 and 2010. More recently, the pandemic-era drop of roughly 5% between 2020 and 2025 compounded the longer-term slide. Taken together, these forces have reshaped family formation patterns across the country.
State-level data shows wide variation. Some states have seen even steeper declines than the national average, driven by factors ranging from housing costs to shifting cultural norms. The trend has not gone unnoticed in Washington. In May 2026, former President Trump announced a fertility benefit option and the launch of a website, moms.gov, as part of an effort to address the issue.
The implications extend beyond demographics. A shrinking birthrate strains Social Security, Medicare, and the broader labor market. It also reshapes political priorities, as seen in recent debates over family policy. For instance, seven Democratic states skipped a Trump-backed state fair, citing costs and partisan concerns, highlighting the politicization of even nonpartisan demographic challenges.
Meanwhile, some local elections suggest voters are hungry for change on economic and social issues. DSA wins in D.C. and Los Angeles signal a shift in priorities, though experts caution against drawing national conclusions from isolated races.
The fertility discussion also intersects with technology and privacy debates. The paper’s findings raise questions about how digital devices influence life choices, from education to childbearing. As smartphones become ever more central to daily life, their role in demographic trends may grow.
For now, the data is clear: the U.S. is having fewer babies, and the trend shows no sign of reversing. Whether policy interventions or cultural shifts can stem the decline remains an open question for the next administration.
