With a 28 percent approval rating, the Democratic Party is expected to regain control of the House in November. But that outcome isn’t driven by enthusiasm for Democrats—it’s fueled by growing discontent with President Trump. Swing voters are choosing what they see as the lesser of two evils, not casting enthusiastic votes for a party they trust.
This year’s midterms will be decided by voters exhausted by both major parties, but that fatigue alone won’t be enough to break the two-party stranglehold. However, a larger transformation is already underway. Forty-five percent of Americans now identify as political independents, compared to 27 percent who align with Democrats and 27 percent with Republicans. That shift is creating fertile ground for third-party movements.
Last year, the Forward Party won the mayor’s race in Georgetown, South Carolina—the first third-party victory in a partisan election in the state since 1894. The party is organizing nationwide, and its candidate pledge offers a template for productive political behavior, a stark contrast to the divisive tactics of the major parties. The Center Party, another alternative, is also gaining traction with eight guiding principles that blend fiscal discipline with environmental stewardship.
The current system has momentum, but it cannot indefinitely contain voter discontent. Americans are losing faith in the future, from failing public schools to the struggle of workers trying to stay in the middle class. The past few decades have been disheartening for too many, and voters increasingly blame the party in power. Midterm elections are predictable: the president’s party almost always loses seats. But if this system were working, it might endure. It isn’t, and Americans are losing ground.
Both parties are responsible for the dysfunction. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s corrosive tactics may have set the course, but Democrats have matched Republicans in fueling division. They are just as willing to shut down the government, use crass language, and troll opponents online. In their quest to fight fire with fire, Democrats have scorched the standards that once set them apart.
Democratic candidates are likely to prevail in November because swing voters cannot trust Republicans to contain President Trump’s worst impulses. If elected Republicans had demonstrated independence, the party’s candidates would have an easier time overcoming the president’s unpopularity. Instead, Americans know that most congressional Republicans will timidly follow his lead, making a vote for a Republican candidate also a vote to accommodate an unpopular president.
Even if it means periodically losing power, Democratic and Republican officials are satisfied with a system that limits their competition to a single, equally unpopular party. Both are so focused on defeating each other that they’ve lost sight of why they should serve. Politicians focus on cataloguing their opponents’ faults rather than building coalitions to govern effectively.
The results are clear: America owes $39 trillion to creditors. Rust belt cities remain unre vitalized, even as AI threatens to create a new rust belt. Trust in government is near a record low, and families stop speaking over politics. The culture perpetuated by Democrats and Republicans isn’t meeting the country’s needs and seems incompatible with widespread prosperity.
Change is coming. It’s the height of hubris for Democrats and Republicans to believe they can maintain their duopoly despite low approval ratings and growing disquiet. November’s election may bring change, but a much larger transformation is coming—one driven by the 5.8 million independent voters who are reshaping American politics.
Colin Pascal is a retired Army lieutenant colonel and a senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute.
