House Republican leaders are already looking ahead to a potential fourth reconciliation bill, even as their third party-line budget package—unveiled just this week—struggles to secure the votes needed to pass. The talk of another round comes amid widespread disappointment among GOP lawmakers that the current $95 billion framework was significantly scaled back from earlier promises of deep spending reductions and a major defense boost.
Dubbed reconciliation 4.0, the proposed legislation would use the special budget process that allows Republicans to bypass the Senate filibuster, but it would focus on the kind of deficit-cutting measures that fiscal conservatives have been demanding. House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) dropped a hint about the plan at the Hill Nation Summit on Wednesday, saying, “No one thought we could get to reconciliation 3.0, and we think we’re going to get through it. And then all of a sudden, now we’re talking about reconciliation 4.0.” She added, “I’m just giving you a little teaser on that, because we do have to deal with the waste, the fraud, the abuse, the offsets—all of that stuff.”
The third reconciliation package, which leaders released text for on Wednesday, allocates $73 billion for defense and intelligence, $12 billion for farm aid, and $10 billion for a grant program to encourage states to adopt voter ID and proof-of-citizenship requirements—echoing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act. However, it includes no spending cuts or offsets to cover the $95 billion price tag, angering budget hawks who had hoped for significant reductions. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) confirmed the shift in strategy, telling Politico, “We’re right now looking at a reconciliation 4.0 to do the things that are left out of this one.”
The idea of a fourth bill is not entirely new; GOP leaders previously dangled a larger reconciliation 2.0 to win over holdouts from the House Freedom Caucus, who resisted a “skinny” immigration enforcement bill until they received assurances of a more comprehensive follow-up. This time, however, lawmakers say the talk of reconciliation 4.0 is less a bargaining chip and more a genuine acknowledgment of the need for a second phase. Still, many caution that it’s too early to count on it. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told The Hill, “It’s a little early to see,” while Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) said he would “obviously” welcome a fourth package, calling the current one “an emergency response” rather than a proper budget process.
The House Budget Committee advanced the reconciliation 3.0 instructions on Thursday with minimal opposition, but the full House vote next week remains uncertain. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can afford only three defections on a party-line vote, and several Republicans have already voiced concerns. Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) opposes the lack of offsets and doubts the $10 billion grant program will sway states to change voting policies, comparing it to Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion incentives that 11 states rejected. Rep. Warren Davison (R-Ohio) declared the framework “DOA” on social media, citing the missing offsets.
Even if the House passes the bill, the Senate poses a major obstacle. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) called a third reconciliation bill a “risky proposition,” questioning whether “the juice is worth the squeeze.” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has pledged to oppose any version that includes Trump-backed voting restrictions, vowing to “use every device I have available to slow down the wheels of government” if the House includes such provisions. The internal fissures over the third bill highlight the challenge Johnson faces in uniting his conference, even as leaders look ahead to a fourth package that could address the deficit-reduction goals many Republicans still prioritize.
