The United States is on course to record its lowest annual homicide rate in over a century, according to a new analysis from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) released Thursday. The report, drawing on data from 30 cities, found that reported homicides during the first half of 2026 dropped 18 percent compared to the same period last year—a decline of 215 killings.
If the trend holds, the 2026 homicide rate would fall below the roughly 4 per 100,000 people estimated for 2025, which itself was the lowest since reliable record-keeping began in 1900. The CCJ’s latest figures suggest the nation is continuing a sharp reversal from the pandemic-era violence spike.
Compared to the first half of 2022—when homicides hit an all-time high—reported killings are now down 51 percent. The report also documents significant drops in other serious crimes: carjackings, residential burglaries, and motor vehicle thefts have all fallen substantially in the same period.
“There is no single or easy explanation for the broad drop in crime,” the CCJ researchers wrote, attributing the shift to a mix of demographic changes, behavioral shifts, and policy adjustments across jurisdictions. They urged communities to “invest in strategies that are supported by rigorous research and producing tangible results on the ground.”
The decline is widespread geographically. Twenty-six of the 30 sample cities reported fewer homicides in the first half of 2026 than in the same period in 2019. Lincoln, Nebraska, saw a 100 percent reduction—meaning zero homicides reported so far this year. The national homicide rate for the first half of 2026 is 31 percent below the pre-pandemic level of 2019.
But the picture is not uniformly positive. Four cities recorded increases relative to 2019: Norfolk, Virginia, saw homicides rise 36 percent; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 4 percent; and Minneapolis, Minnesota, 26 percent. Austin, Texas, posted the largest spike, with a 74 percent jump in reported homicides compared to 2019.
The CCJ’s findings come amid broader discussions about public safety and policy effectiveness. While the overall crime decline is encouraging, the researchers cautioned that “for families who have lost loved ones to violence, even the continuing progress of 2026 is of little comfort.” They added that “keeping that in mind will help the United States stay on track toward a future of even greater public safety.”
The report aligns with other recent indicators of improving public safety, even as debates over policing, sentencing, and gun control continue to divide lawmakers. Meanwhile, international trade tensions, such as Carney's condemnation of Trump's 50% tariff as a breach of USMCA, and other policy disputes remain prominent on the national agenda.
As the data underscores a historic low in violence, the challenge for policymakers will be sustaining these gains while addressing the persistent disparities that leave some cities—and some communities—behind.
