Five months into the U.S. military campaign against Iran, a fresh Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that a majority of Americans are pessimistic about the regional fallout. Released Tuesday, the survey shows that 50% of respondents believe the conflict will undermine stability in the Middle East over the next year, while only 17% expect an improvement.
An additional 16% predicted the war would have little impact on the region, and 17% said they were uncertain about its broader consequences. These numbers reflect growing public skepticism about a conflict that has become deeply unpopular, even as President Trump seeks to negotiate a new agreement with Tehran following a series of military strikes.
Trump has recently stepped back from earlier threats of a “massive attack” on Iran, with reports suggesting an outline of a deal is being discussed. This shift underscores the uncertainty surrounding a war that has expanded well beyond what administration officials initially projected, as the administration's Iran strategy faces grim military and political realities.
Economic strain and oil prices
The poll also highlights growing American anxiety over the economic toll of the conflict. With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global oil supplies, costs have climbed steadily. As of Thursday, the national average gas price stood at $4.06 per gallon, according to AAA—more than a dollar higher than when the U.S. and Israel first launched attacks on Iran on February 28.
Nearly 60% of Americans said they expect fuel prices to keep rising over the next year, compared with just 15% who anticipate a decline. This economic pressure is becoming a central political issue, particularly for Republicans who have largely backed Trump's Iran policy. As the party gears up for November's midterm elections, it faces the challenge of defending its economic message amid waning public support for the military strikes.
Weak public backing, even among Republicans
The survey found that only 35% of Americans approve of the military operation in Iran. Even among Republicans, confidence that the war will ultimately stabilize the region is limited. While two-thirds of GOP respondents approve of Trump's handling of the conflict, fewer than half believe it will leave the Middle East more stable over the coming year.
This lukewarm support within the president's own party could complicate efforts to rally unified backing for the war as it drags on. The poll's findings also come amid broader concerns about the effectiveness of U.S. alliances in the region, with some analysts pointing to the Iran-Russia-China bloc outperforming U.S. alliances in the Middle East.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,505 U.S. adults online over six days and concluded Monday. It carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
