With Congress in its August recess, lawmakers are crisscrossing the country to campaign and meet constituents as the 2026 midterm season heats up. Nowhere is the political tension more visible than in Florida, where voters head to the polls Tuesday to settle a crowded Republican gubernatorial primary and decide the fate of an embattled incumbent congressman.
Donalds Leads Pack in Governor's Race
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) has emerged as the clear front-runner in the GOP primary for governor, buoyed by President Trump's endorsement. In a February Truth Social post, Trump touted Donalds as a candidate who would "work closely" with him on an America First agenda, citing border security, military strength, and energy dominance. The president's backing has given Donalds a formidable edge in a race where his influence remains decisive among Republican voters.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner trail Donalds in most polls. Gov. Ron DeSantis has declined to endorse anyone in the primary, though he recently offered kind words for Renner, saying he "would be really good" as governor but questioning his ability to gain name recognition. The Democratic field includes former Republican Rep. David Jolly, teacher Dayna Marie Foster, Evelyn Castillo-Bach, and Air Force veteran Thomas Fernandez. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the open seat as "Likely Republican," but a potential Donalds-Jolly matchup could draw national interest.
Mills Faces Tough Primary Amid Ethics Probe
Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) is fighting for political survival in Florida's 7th District, where he faces three GOP challengers, including former TV anchor Ryan Elijah. Mills, who was first elected in 2022, is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations of dating violence and campaign finance violations. A state judge granted a restraining order to an ex-girlfriend who said he harassed her and threatened to release explicit images. Another woman initially told police he assaulted her in February 2025 but later recanted.
Mills denies all wrongdoing, but the controversy has cost him support. DeSantis said Friday he does not endorse Mills. Nevertheless, polls show Mills leading the primary, with a recent Victory Insights survey giving him 28% support, 6 points ahead of Elijah. A St. Pete Polls survey found him with a 15-point advantage. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos have backed Elijah, calling him a "true patriot" and a better fit for the district. Trump has endorsed Mills, but the race remains a test of whether the president's backing can overcome serious allegations. For more on the dynamics, see DeSantis's break with Mills.
Cherfilus-McCormick's Unlikely Comeback
Former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.) is attempting a political comeback after resigning from the House in April amid federal charges that she stole millions from FEMA to fund her 2022 campaign. She has pleaded not guilty and maintains her innocence. Her bid adds an unusual twist to Florida's primary landscape, as she seeks to reclaim her seat despite the legal cloud.
California Redistricting Challenge Heads to Court
On Wednesday, a federal three-judge panel in California will hear a motion to dismiss a lawsuit challenging the state's new congressional map. The map, drawn by Democrats, has been criticized as gerrymandered, and the case could have major implications for the 2026 House elections. The panel's ruling could either clear the way for the map's use or force a redraw, potentially shifting the balance of power in the House. The outcome is being closely watched by both parties, as similar battles have erupted in other states. Meanwhile, lawmakers are also grappling with unresolved spending bills as they return to their districts, a topic explored in this analysis of the recess.
What to Watch This Week
- Florida GOP gubernatorial primary: Voters pick a nominee Tuesday, with Donalds favored.
- Mills' primary: The incumbent faces a tough challenge from Elijah and others.
- Cherfilus-McCormick's bid: The former congresswoman seeks a return despite federal charges.
- California map lawsuit: A motion to dismiss is heard Wednesday, with potential national consequences.
As the midterms intensify, these races highlight the intersection of Trump's influence, ethics controversies, and legal battles over electoral maps. The results could reshape the political landscape heading into 2026.
