A fresh InsiderAdvantage survey finds Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat, clinging to a single-point lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the state’s open U.S. Senate race, signaling a tighter contest than Minnesota’s recent electoral history would suggest.
The poll, conducted Sept. 28-29 among 1,200 likely voters, puts Flanagan at 46 percent and Tafoya at 45 percent, with a margin of error of roughly 2.95 percentage points. The result is within the statistical noise, meaning the race is effectively tied.
Pollster Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage described the findings as “unusual” for a state that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. He pointed to outgoing Gov. Tim Walz’s declining approval numbers and a fraud scandal that has rocked Minnesota as possible factors keeping the race close.
“Tafoya does extremely well with men and Flanagan is losing every age group other than the youngest of voters, who in the poll have a significant ‘enthusiasm about voting’ gap versus other age groups who are more enthusiastic,” Towery said in a statement.
He cautioned that the race could still shift, noting Minnesota’s historical resistance to Republican Senate candidates. “We are a ways out and Minnesota has not been friendly to GOP candidates, so this could change,” Towery said. “But for the moment the race appears a tossup.”
Despite the tightening poll, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report continues to rate the contest as “likely Democrat,” a designation it has held since last August.
Flanagan and Tafoya are vying to succeed Sen. Tina Smith, a Democrat who announced her retirement from Congress last year. Recent surveys have shown Flanagan with modest advantages: a 4-point lead in a Quantus Insights poll and a 1-point edge in a co/efficient survey earlier this month.
Immigration enforcement looms large
Both candidates have weighed in on the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota, which became a flashpoint after federal officials shot and killed two people in Minneapolis earlier this year. Flanagan has been a vocal critic, calling for an end to President Trump’s mass deportation policy and what her campaign website describes as “aggressive sweeps against immigrants who pose no danger to our communities.”
Tafoya has also criticized the operations, telling NewsNation last week that she believed the ICE rollout in Minnesota was “very poorly handled” and that former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was “fired appropriately.” At the same time, Tafoya has blamed Flanagan for the fraud scandal that the Trump administration cited when it deployed thousands of Department of Homeland Security officers to the state. The controversy has also drawn attention to related legal battles, including a DOJ push for sanctions against two Minnesota judges over their comments on ICE raids.
With the race now a statistical dead heat, both campaigns are expected to intensify their efforts in the coming weeks. National Democrats are counting on Minnesota to remain in their column as they defend a narrow Senate majority, while Republicans see an opportunity to flip a seat in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2002. The outcome could hinge on turnout dynamics and how voters weigh the intertwined issues of immigration enforcement and state-level scandal.
For now, the InsiderAdvantage poll underscores that Minnesota’s Senate contest is one to watch—a surprising development in a state that many analysts had placed safely in Democratic hands.
