Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is projected to become Alaska's next governor, breaking a 28-year Republican hold on the state's highest office, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). The former state lawmaker defeated Republican Bernadette Wilson and two other candidates in the state's ranked-choice general election.
With 90% of ballots counted by late Friday night, Kreiss-Tomkins led with 50.8% of the vote, while Wilson trailed at 28.1%. The victory marks a historic shift in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the governor's mansion since 1998.
The path to victory was smoothed by an unlikely alliance: Democrat Tom Begich, a member of Alaska's prominent Begich political family, advanced from the primary but withdrew from the race and endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins, consolidating Democratic support.
On the Republican side, the field was crowded. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former Attorney General Treg Taylor also ran, splitting conservative votes and fueling concerns among GOP leaders about the impact of ranked-choice voting, which has faced skepticism from some Republicans.
Kreiss-Tomkins also benefited from a notable endorsement: Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski backed his candidacy, a rare cross-party show of support that boosted his appeal to moderate voters. He also led in fundraising and polling as the race entered its final stretch.
At 37, Kreiss-Tomkins is set to be sworn in as the youngest governor in Alaska's history. He will succeed term-limited Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy, who won re-election by a wide margin in 2022.
The Cook Political Report had moved the race from solidly Republican to a toss-up in September, and then to a surprising "lean Democrat" rating in October, signaling the shifting dynamics in the Last Frontier.
Alaska was one of five potential gubernatorial flips for Democrats in the 36 races on Tuesday's ballot, according to pre-election DDHQ forecasts. The outcome is a significant pickup for the party as it seeks to build momentum heading into the 2026 midterms.
Political analysts note that Kreiss-Tomkins's victory could have broader implications for Democrats' 2026 win: a warning, not a mandate, suggesting that while the party is making gains, it must be cautious about overinterpreting individual victories.
In a statement after the projection, Kreiss-Tomkins emphasized unity and bipartisanship, echoing the themes of his campaign. His win may also signal a shift in Alaskan politics, where ranked-choice voting and cross-party endorsements are reshaping traditional party dynamics.
