The 2026 primary season is entering its final phase, but several consequential races remain before the political world fully shifts to the general election. Over the next few weeks, voters in more than a dozen states will settle key nominations that could influence the balance of power in November.
In Florida and Wisconsin, open-seat gubernatorial races will take shape. Florida's term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leaves a vacancy, while Wisconsin's Gov. Tony Evers (D) has opted not to seek a third term. Meanwhile, South Carolina Republicans will pick a nominee to fill the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's seat, and Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey (D) faces a tough primary challenge.
Wisconsin governor: A test for the Democratic left
Following progressive Abdul El-Sayed's narrow victory in Michigan's gubernatorial primary last week, attention turns to Wisconsin, where state Rep. Francesca Hong (D), a democratic socialist, is trying to replicate that success. Tuesday's contest is shaping up as a major gauge of the Democratic Socialists of America's influence, which has seen its preferred candidates defeat incumbents in several high-profile races.
Hong has maintained a solid lead over Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who is backed by Evers. However, many party insiders question her electability against the GOP's likely nominee, Rep. Tom Tiffany, and worry she could drag down down-ballot Democrats. Strategist David Axelrod recently called Hong a "zany liberal," contrasting her with El-Sayed, whom he deemed "serious." Hong fired back, saying Axelrod and "the consultant class" are "totally clueless."
South Carolina Senate: A crowded GOP field to replace Graham
South Carolina Republicans return to the polls Tuesday to select a nominee for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's seat. The senator's sister, Darline Graham, was appointed to complete his term and has Trump's endorsement. She faces Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, as well as 2022 primary challenger Mark Lynch and former Gov. Mark Sanford. Polling shows Graham and Norman leading, but Fry has gained ground after sharp debate performances, including this jab: "The United States Senate is no place for on-the-job training. I didn't inherit a record. I earned it." If no one secures a majority, the race heads to an Aug. 25 runoff.
Florida governor: Donalds leads GOP field, Jolly tops Democrats
Rep. Byron Donalds (R) is the clear front-runner in Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary on Aug. 18, backed by Trump and leading in polls against nine rivals, including James Fishback, who has drawn controversy with Tucker Carlson and far-right activist Nick Fuentes's support. On the Democratic side, former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat, leads the field. Though the state is rated solidly Republican, some Democrats see an opening with Jolly's crossover appeal.
Florida's 19th District: A free-for-all for Donalds's seat
Donalds's gubernatorial bid has opened his Southwest Florida House seat, prompting a crowded GOP primary on Aug. 18. The field includes former Reps. Madison Cawthorn (N.C.) and Chris Collins (N.Y.), along with a parade of candidates from other states, such as Jim Oberweis, Catalina Lauf, and John Strand, a Jan. 6 participant who received a pardon. The race has drawn attention for its carpetbagging accusations and colorful candidates, particularly Cawthorn, who lost his 2022 reelection after one term.
Massachusetts Senate: Markey's toughest test yet
Sen. Ed Markey, 80, faces a spirited primary on Sept. 1 in deep-blue Massachusetts. Favored by progressives, he previously beat back a challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy III in 2020. This year, his opponent is [Name of challenger], who argues Markey has been in Washington too long. The race is a twist on the usual dynamics, with Markey positioning as the progressive standard-bearer against a more moderate challenger.
These primaries will set the stage for November, with implications for control of Congress and governorships. As recent upsets show, the political landscape remains volatile, and Trump's influence continues to shape races.
