This November, voters in three dozen states will elect governors, with several contests in battleground states that President Trump carried in 2024 emerging as early referendums on his second-term agenda. Swing states such as Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin serve as key bellwethers for the national mood on the economy, the White House, and the broader political landscape.
Two Midwestern states have also become focal points for both parties. Republicans see a prime opportunity in Kansas, where term-limited Democratic Governor Laura Kelly cannot run again. Meanwhile, Democrats are eyeing an opening in Iowa, a state they haven't won in a gubernatorial race in two decades.
Unlike federal contests, which are often swept up in national currents, gubernatorial races tend to be more personal, making them fertile ground for ticket-splitting. Here are the five governor seats most likely to flip this fall.
Kansas: Open Seat After Kelly's Exit
Kelly, a Democrat who thrived in a deeply red state, is term-limited, handing Republicans their best pickup opportunity this cycle. Seven Republicans are vying for the nomination in the August 4 primary, including Trump-endorsed state Senate President Ty Masterson. Others in the GOP field include Secretary of State Scott Schwab, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, businessman Philip Sarnecki, former state Representative Charlotte O'Hara, business owner Stacy Rogers, and Nick Reinecker.
On the Democratic side, state Senators Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, along with Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog, are competing. Trump's endorsement has been a powerful force in primaries, though several of his gubernatorial picks have lost this cycle. Sarnecki leads in fundraising with $2.5 million, including $2 million of his own money. Schwab has raised $1.4 million, mostly self-funded, while Masterson has brought in nearly $700,000. Among Democrats, Corson has raised over $900,000. The next campaign finance reports aren't due until July 27, leaving a murky picture of recent financial health. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, and the Cook Political Report rates the seat as “lean Republican.”
Iowa: Democrats See a Path After Two Decades
Democrats haven't captured the Iowa governor's mansion since 2006, but they are optimistic about State Auditor Rob Sand, the only statewide elected Democrat in the state. Sand, known for bowhunting and quoting the Bible, will face Republican businessman Zach Lahn, who upset Trump's preferred candidate, Representative Randy Feenstra, in the GOP primary. Lahn is running on conservative staples like ending “political indoctrination” in schools and tightening immigration laws, including a ban on hiring H-1B visa holders. But his platform also includes bipartisan issues like tackling cancer and reversing the state's exodus of young people. Sand has gone on the offensive, arguing Lahn doesn't live in Iowa full-time—Lahn co-founded a private school in Kansas and maintains a home there for visits with children from a previous marriage. Republicans have hit Sand over an audit showing $40 million moved without proper approval in the Iowa City school system, though Sand notes most public schools use private auditors. Cook rates this race a “toss up.”
This contest could be influenced by broader economic pressures; a recent report on grocery taxes and rising hunger underscores how state-level policies affect everyday voters.
Nevada: A Test of Ticket-Splitting and Economic Anxiety
Governor Joe Lombardo was the only Republican to flip a governor's seat in 2022, but Nevada's tourism-dependent economy makes it especially vulnerable to inflation and price shocks. Trump won the state by 3 points in 2024 even as voters reelected Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, and Lombardo won in 2022 alongside Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory—a pattern of split-ticket voting that gives Democrats hope. About 30% of Nevada's population is Latino or Hispanic, a bloc that has shown signs of cooling on Trump in his second term. The state's transient electorate, driven by hospitality workers, forces candidates to constantly reintroduce themselves, making it particularly sensitive to economic concerns like gas prices.
Democrats see an opening to flip the seat back, especially if Lombardo's ties to Trump become a liability. The race could also be shaped by national debates over EPA approvals of controversial pesticides, which resonate in a state with significant agricultural and environmental interests.
Georgia and Wisconsin: Bellwethers in the Balance
Georgia and Wisconsin, both won by Trump in 2024, feature incumbents who have become national figures. In Georgia, Republican Governor Brian Kemp faces a challenge from Democrat Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost in 2018 and 2022. The race will test whether Abrams can overcome Kemp's strong record and the state's rightward drift. In Wisconsin, Democratic Governor Tony Evers is seeking a third term against a Republican field that includes former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Both states are expected to be tight, with Cook rating them as toss ups or lean Republican.
These contests may also reflect voter frustration with rising costs; a recent analysis of soaring DUI insurance premiums highlights how state-level economic pressures can shape electoral outcomes.
As the November elections approach, these five races offer a window into the national mood—and the durability of Trump's coalition in a post-2024 landscape.
