Heading into August, Democratic leaders are confident about their prospects for reclaiming the House and possibly the Senate, buoyed by President Trump's sinking approval ratings. Yet a persistent ideological battle between the party's establishment wing and its progressive left threatens to undermine that momentum.
Recent polling underscores the party's advantage: an AP-NORC survey released Thursday put Trump's approval at 33 percent, 8 points lower than at the same point in his first term. Analyst Nate Silver's tracker shows the president at 38.2 percent approval and 58.8 percent disapproval, a record low. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found only one-third of Americans support the ongoing Iran war, with 59 percent opposed, and rising gas prices have added to voter discontent.
Democratic strategist Basil Smikle acknowledged the optimism but warned of pitfalls. “There's optimism, but a little concern around making sure that Democrats have the right candidates and a strong message,” he said. “It can't all be anti-Trump.” Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, a Trump critic, offered a blunt metaphor: “Democrats have wind behind their backs no doubt, but if they don't have a sail it's not worth anything.”
The party's internal strife was on display in Michigan's Senate race, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed, who is not a democratic socialist, leads centrist Rep. Haley Stevens in polls. However, some analysts suggest El-Sayed might be more vulnerable in a general election against a Republican. This dynamic mirrors a broader national struggle, with a growing share of Democrats identifying as democratic socialists, adding to the tension.
Further complicating matters, the Democratic Socialists of America's co-chair, Megan Romer, recently proposed abolishing the Senate and prisons and granting amnesty to all undocumented immigrants. Her Fox News appearance triggered a wave of headlines and angered moderate Democrats. “We — as in all Democrats — now are going to be asked if we're trying to abolish the Senate,” one donor lamented. “It's crazy, and it's why we could lose.”
Del Percio argued that the party's public airing of its disputes is damaging. “They have all of their issues playing out in the news media and on cable TV,” she said. “The DSA isn't trying to create their own lane. They're trying to infiltrate, and they're very upfront about it.” She added that by August, parties should be unified, but Democrats “just keep putting a hot poker in their eye.”
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon described the party's standing as “good not great.” He said, “We're ready to take the House but to secure a big House majority and a narrow Senate control, Democrats must go the extra mile to convince people disappointed with Trump that my party can repair the damage he's done. We're still not there yet but we still have some time.”
Another strategist, speaking anonymously, predicted wins in both chambers but with a caveat: “Typically, I'd say, bet on it, with a president who isn't doing well and an endless war. But leave it to us to f--- things up. We'll find a way. We always do.” That sentiment reflects a broader concern that the midterms are less about Democratic appeal and more about a referendum on Trump. “I think voters are fed up. But it isn't that they're in love with us. It's that we're the other option,” the strategist added.
Despite these worries, Democrats maintain a solid lead in generic congressional ballots, and Trump's approval continues to slide. The party is also highlighting its economic proposals to address cost-of-living concerns. Yet the path to victory remains fraught, as internal divisions and a need for a forward-looking message persist.
