A fresh CNN survey released Thursday gives Democrats a solid 8-point edge over Republicans among registered voters, with the midterm elections now just over three months out.
The poll, conducted from July 23 to 27, found that 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for or were leaning toward a Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today. Only 39 percent said the same about a Republican. Another 11 percent said they would back neither party.
These numbers come at a particularly tough moment for President Trump and the GOP. The party is grappling with public discontent over the ongoing military engagement with Iran, persistent economic anxiety, and Trump's sinking approval ratings, which have dragged down Republican prospects. According to an average compiled by Decision Desk HQ, Trump's approval rating stood at just 40.60 percent on Thursday, while his disapproval rating hit 57.50 percent.
Recent Democratic victories in special elections and key races have only added to the pressure. A prominent election forecaster, Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, revised its projections this week for several high-profile contests. The group shifted Georgia's Senate race—where incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection—from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic," signaling growing confidence in Democratic prospects there.
In the House, Sabato's Crystal Ball also upgraded five races from "leans Republican" to "toss-up," reflecting a national environment that appears to favor Democrats. These changes underscore the uphill battle Republicans face as they try to defend or flip seats in a midterm cycle shaped by voter frustration with the status quo.
The poll's findings align with other recent surveys showing a majority of voters prioritizing pragmatic solutions over ideological battles, a shift that could benefit Democrats who have focused on kitchen-table issues like healthcare and economic stability. Meanwhile, the GOP's internal divisions—exemplified by Senate Republicans rejecting Trump's budget ultimatum—may be eroding party unity ahead of the elections.
The CNN poll included 1,225 respondents and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. With the midterms fast approaching, both parties are now locked into a high-stakes battle for control of Congress, with Democrats holding a narrow advantage but facing a historically challenging electoral map.
