A fresh NBC News survey shows Democrats holding a narrow but consistent edge over Republicans as the midterm elections approach, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they want the party to reclaim control of Congress. The poll, conducted from May 29 through June 7 among 2,400 registered voters, found 44 percent prefer Republican control, while 7 percent remain undecided.
The results mirror an earlier NBC News poll from March, which also showed Democrats with a 5-point advantage—50 percent to 44 percent—and 6 percent undecided. Since October 2018, neither party has led by more than 8 points in NBC's tracking on this question, underscoring the persistent competitiveness of the midterm landscape.
Democrats currently hold narrow minority positions in both the Senate and the House, and flipping either chamber would require a sweeping victory. To regain the Senate, the party must flip at least four Republican-held seats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates one of those races—the open seat in North Carolina vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis—as leaning Democratic, with former Governor Roy Cooper as the nominee. Two other races are rated as toss-ups: the reelection bid of Maine Senator Susan Collins, and the campaign of Ohio Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine after Vice President Vance vacated the seat.
Democrats are also eyeing opportunities in Alaska and Texas, though the Cook Political Report currently rates both as leaning Republican. In the House, Republicans hold a slim 218-212 majority, with independent Representative Kevin Kiley of California caucusing with the GOP. A protracted redistricting battle has given the GOP a chance to net nine additional seats, but of the 18 seats rated as toss-ups by Cook, 14 are currently held by Republicans.
The poll's margin of error is 2 percentage points, and it was sponsored by More Perfect, a group focused on judicial reform. The survey comes amid broader political maneuvering, including Democrats pushing a new healthcare agenda as ObamaCare's popularity fades, and escalating dueling investigations into campaign finance platforms ActBlue and WinRed.
With less than five months until Election Day, both parties are intensifying their strategies. The Democratic edge in the polling, while modest, signals that the party's messaging on economic and healthcare issues may be resonating, though internal divisions—such as GOP infighting over a third reconciliation package—could also be influencing voter sentiment.
