Iran's surprise ballistic missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan is shattering the fragile pause in hostilities between Washington and Tehran, raising the specter of a return to full-scale conflict. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched five missiles at a U.S. base Tuesday evening, prompting a swift response from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, who hours later struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq.
President Trump, in a fiery response Wednesday, told Fox News the U.S. will “beat the f---ing s--- out of them.” Later, at the White House, he declared it was the military’s “turn” to strike Iran. “We’re going to be hitting them very hard because it’s our turn to hit them. They know it’s coming. They’re asking us not to do it,” Trump said, claiming Tehran is seeking to avoid further escalation but adding, “we’ll see if we get there with an agreement at some point.”
The exchange of fire underscores the difficulty of ending a conflict that Trump predicted in March would last four to five weeks but is now entering its sixth month. Trump had paused strikes over the weekend to allow room for diplomacy, after Iran reportedly requested a meeting. But Tuesday’s attack threatens to unravel those efforts.
Will Todman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said neither side may want all-out war, but Iran is unsatisfied with the status quo. “They do seem to think that continuing to put military pressure on the U.S. will force greater compromises in the negotiations,” he told The Hill.
Retired Marine Corps Col. Ray Gerber noted that the Jordan strike fits a pattern of “systematic targeting” of U.S. support infrastructure by Iran and its proxies. “We’re punitively striking Iran to try to bring them back to the negotiating table, and Iran is absorbing that cost and still capable of attacking back,” he said. “It’s not clear to me that our airstrikes are effective against those type of Iranian capabilities.”
The U.S. military’s munition stockpiles are a growing concern. A CSIS analysis published Monday estimates the U.S. now has between 759 and 827 Patriot interceptors, down from over 2,300 before the conflict. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors have fallen 38 percent to between 234 and 278. Analysts warned that shrinking inventories may force the U.S. and its allies to “take more risks with interceptions,” as Navy ships with Standard Missiles are often too far away.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) downplayed the concerns, telling reporters the military’s munition stockpiles are in “good shape” and that “a lot of what is being bandied about in the press is inaccurate.”
Saudi Arabia joined the U.S. in striking Iran-allied Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq late Tuesday, killing over 20 fighters. Iraq’s presidency condemned the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty. Gerber warned that Saudi involvement could “horizontally escalate the conflict,” adding a new dimension to Washington’s calculations.
In a separate incident, a U.S.-owned tanker was set ablaze by a drone attack at a shipping hub in Egypt, according to Kpler and Reuters. Trump said he was briefed but did not reveal the cause. The attacks come as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu heads to Washington amid the pause in strikes, adding to the diplomatic complexity.
