The Conservative Political Action Conference convenes in Grapevine, Texas this week, serving as a critical barometer for a Republican Party navigating a midterm election year without its dominant figure. For the first time in a decade, former President Donald Trump is not attending, shifting focus to the movement's internal dynamics, foreign policy fractures, and the early contours of a post-Trump future.
Texas Senate Showdown Takes Center Stage
The location amplifies the state's contentious Republican Senate primary runoff between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. CPAC has openly pressured Cornyn to appear, noting Paxton's perfect lifetime score with the organization compared to Cornyn's 85 percent. Paxton is scheduled to speak at the conference's Ronald Reagan Dinner, while Cornyn's campaign has rebuffed the invitation, with a spokesperson bluntly telling CPAC chairman Matt Schlapp, "You've endorsed Paxton." The National Republican Senatorial Committee backs Cornyn, fearing a Paxton nomination could jeopardize the seat against Democratic challenger James Talarico. Paxton is campaigning as the more Trump-aligned candidate, recently advocating for a Senate rules change to enact a proof-of-citizenship voting requirement.
MAGA Movement Grapples with Iran Conflict
Foreign policy tensions within Trump's base are expected to surface prominently. Despite Trump's claim of "productive conversations" with Iran and a temporary pause on strikes, the conflict has exposed rifts. Some prominent MAGA-aligned media figures and former officials, like ex-counterterrorism director Joe Kent who resigned over the war, have criticized the administration's approach. Rising gas prices linked to Middle East instability present an election-year vulnerability. However, some conservatives, like Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, argue internal debate on national security is healthy for the movement.
The 2028 Shadow Primary Emerges
With Trump's second term at its midpoint, speculation about his successor is intensifying. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are viewed as frontrunners in this early jockeying. Trump has recently lavished praise on Rubio, calling him potentially "the greatest secretary of State in history," even as Vance remains a formidable contender. CPAC's annual straw poll will offer an early read on the preferences of the activist base.
Broader GOP Context and Internal Strains
The conference unfolds against a backdrop of broader Republican policy disputes. Internally, the party is wrestling with divisions over Department of Homeland Security funding and shutdown strategies that have caused operational chaos. On voting issues, analyses suggest some party-led measures, like the SAVE America Act, could inadvertently disenfranchise Republican voters. The administration is also pushing for congressional action on unified artificial intelligence regulations to prevent a patchwork of state laws.
International Repercussions
The Iran conflict continues to shape global posture. The State Department has issued a worldwide travel alert for U.S. citizens due to ongoing hostilities. Meanwhile, diplomatic strategies are under scrutiny, including reports that the administration has leveraged HIV/AIDS funding in negotiations with Zambia for critical mineral access.
As activists gather in Texas, CPAC will reveal a party at a crossroads, testing its cohesion on war and peace, defining its next generation of leadership, and battling over a Senate seat crucial to its majority ambitions.
