Alaska, typically a reliably Republican state, has emerged as an unexpected battleground in the fight for Senate control this November. Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is mounting a serious challenge to GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, and recent polls suggest a tight contest that has national Republicans on edge.
While public surveys have been mixed, the race's competitiveness has prompted the National Republican Senatorial Committee to increase spending on Sullivan's behalf. James Brooks, a veteran Alaska political journalist, attributes this to a national environment that is less favorable for the GOP, citing President Trump's low approval ratings and persistent cost-of-living concerns.
“I talked with somebody who was door knocking for Sullivan in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which is a very Republican area, and they were finding very lukewarm support among people who answered their doors,” Brooks said. “And this was from someone who supports Sullivan and was door knocking for him.”
Peltola’s strong name recognition is a key factor. She served two terms in the U.S. House, becoming the first Alaska Native member of Congress, and has a diverse background that includes work on commercial fishing boats and service as a tribal judge. She is running as an independent voice, noting her leadership of the Blue Dog Coalition and her hiring of Republican staffers in her congressional office and campaign.
“I don’t think there’s anyone else in the state who could give Dan Sullivan as tough of a race as Peltola can,” Brooks added.
Sullivan, a Marine Corps veteran and former state attorney general, is seeking a third term. He first won his seat in 2014, defeating then-Sen. Mark Begich. The stakes are high: Republicans can afford to lose no more than two seats without losing their majority, and other GOP-held seats in North Carolina and Ohio are also competitive. Democrats have identified several pickup opportunities that could tip the balance.
Alaska’s electorate is famously difficult to poll due to its dispersed population and unique voting dynamics. A recent survey from Alaska Survey Research, run by a Democratic-aligned consultant, showed Peltola ahead by 2 points, while a June New York Times/Siena College poll had Sullivan up by 2. The state’s open primary on Tuesday will provide an initial test, though Brooks cautioned that the August primary electorate tends to skew more Democratic than the general election.
“What we do see indicates a very close race at this point,” Brooks said. “But keep in mind, we’re still months away from November. A lot of Alaskans are out fishing and are not necessarily paying close attention to the election yet.”
Both campaigns are already making their pitches. Sullivan’s spokesperson, Nate Adams, emphasized the senator’s legislative record, including his support for the Republican reconciliation tax cuts, which Sullivan has branded as the Alaska Opportunity Act. “I think on every issue, whether it’s unleashing energy, creating good paying jobs, making sure Alaskans keep more money in their pockets, you know, expanding our military and Coast Guard, we’re very fortunate that the contrast is pretty clear,” Adams said.
Peltola’s campaign, meanwhile, is attacking Sullivan’s wealth and priorities. A spokesperson pointed to Sullivan’s 37% approval rating and noted that Peltola’s donations come from every borough in the state, with 95% of contributions under $100. “From tripling his wealth while in the U.S. Senate, to enjoying a lavish lifestyle on the donor dime, to his steadfast loyalty to special interests at the expense of Alaskans – Sullivan has only ever focused on enriching himself,” the statement read.
As the campaign heats up, Alaska’s unique political landscape—where voters have elected both Democrats and Republicans like Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a frequent Trump critic—makes this race one to watch. Peltola’s recent pushback on a Harris endorsement underscores her efforts to appeal to a broad electorate. With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, both parties are bracing for a close finish in the Last Frontier.
