A fresh Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday reveals a notable enthusiasm gap between the two major party coalitions heading into the November midterms. While nearly half of voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 say they are “very enthusiastic” about casting ballots, only three in ten of President Trump’s 2024 backers express the same level of excitement.
According to the survey, conducted September 30 through October 5, exactly 30 percent of Trump voters describe themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting, with another 21 percent saying they are moderately enthusiastic. Roughly 10 percent are lukewarm, and another 10 percent say they are “very” unenthusiastic. The remaining 30 percent either said they feel neutral or declined to answer.
By contrast, 48 percent of Harris voters say they are “very enthusiastic” to vote, and an additional 18 percent are “enthusiastic.” Only 7 percent are lukewarm and 6 percent are “very” unenthusiastic, while about 20 percent are neutral or did not respond.
The findings come on the heels of another poll from the same firm showing Trump’s approval rating stuck at 32 percent, with 65 percent disapproving of his performance. That marks no improvement since September. The erosion of support is particularly visible among Hispanic voters, a group where Trump made inroads in 2024, especially in states like Texas. In the latest polling, only 24 percent of Hispanic respondents approve of Trump’s job performance, while Republican congressional candidates fare only slightly better, drawing 26 percent support from that demographic.
The enthusiasm deficit and soft approval numbers cast a shadow over Republican hopes for the midterms, even as Trump continues to urge supporters to treat the election as if he were on the ballot. He has repeatedly tried to frame the race as a referendum on his agenda, but the data suggest that message may not be resonating as strongly as needed.
Compounding the political challenge, Trump has sought to downplay the economic strain of the ongoing Iran war, now in its eighth month. He has described higher gas prices as a “very inexpensive price to pay” to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. At a rally in Nebraska on Monday, he went further, warning that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego, a remark that drew sharp rebukes from California Democrats. Governor Gavin Newsom (D) went so far as to suggest the comment warranted consideration of the 25th Amendment. Trump, however, doubled down on Wednesday evening.
The president has also publicly floated the idea that the conflict could actually help Republicans at the ballot box, telling reporters earlier this month that the war “should help” his party’s chances. Yet with his approval underwater and enthusiasm lagging among his own voters, the prospect of losing one or both chambers of Congress remains a live concern for the GOP. The survey included 2,848 respondents and carries a margin of error of three percentage points.
