President Trump's planned campaign rally in Mississippi on Monday has thrust the deep-red state into the national political spotlight, with Democrats expressing cautious optimism about their chances in the state's Senate race.
The Republican National Committee announced Wednesday that Trump will headline a rally in Corinth, a city in the state's northeast corner. The visit comes as the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC has committed $1.2 million to a television ad campaign supporting Democrat Scott Colom, who is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has countered with over $1 million in spending to defend Hyde-Smith's seat.
Colom has seized on the president's visit, publicly challenging Trump to a debate. The race remains an uphill battle for Democrats, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating it as "likely Republican," though the handicapper recently shifted it from "solid Republican" toward the Democrats.
Democrats see a glimmer of hope in Trump's sagging approval ratings, while Republicans aim to replicate their national turnout strategy in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Mississippi-based Republican strategist Austin Barbour noted that Republican voters are unlikely to defect to Colom, but warned, "What they could do is they could say 'Hey, I'm not showing up that day.'"
The choice of Corinth is notable because it sits in a district where Trump won 68 percent of the vote in 2024, a stronghold of his base. The rally is part of a broader push by both parties to energize their supporters, following recent visits by former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senators Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), and a campaign ad from former President Barack Obama backing Colom.
These Democratic surrogates are part of a strategy to galvanize Mississippi's Black voters, who comprise 36 percent of the state's population—the highest of any state. Barbour explained, "African-American voters tend to vote 90 plus percent for Democratic candidates. If you're down voting in Mississippi, you start out with a significant voting block, so it's a turnout game as every election is."
Barbour argued that the Democratic attention, combined with Trump's visit, should wake up the Republican base, including low-propensity voters. "They also are starting to realize just because we're pissed off, that doesn't mean we can just stay home, or skip this race and allow a guy who admittedly says he's a far-left candidate, represent Mississippi in the United States Senate," he said.
However, Mississippi-based Republican strategist Hayes Dent warned that the high-profile Democratic visits could backfire. "If Scott had really wanted to win the race, and if the Democrats had really thought that this race was competitive, you wouldn't have seen those folks campaigning in Mississippi," Dent said. But he acknowledged significant frustration among Republicans over Trump's economic policies and the ongoing Iran conflict. "When you go and tell everybody you're going to get us out of wars, you're going to drain the swamp, you're going to cut gas prices, you're going to do all of this, and none of that is occurring, people get frustrated," Dent said.
Mississippi's agricultural sector has been hit hard by high fuel prices, with diesel reaching a record $6.06 per gallon last month and still sitting at $5.86, according to AAA. Earlier this week, the state's agriculture commissioner called for suspending the state fuel tax. Dent added, "When you layer tariffs and then put what might be a current cherry on top by saying you're trying to harvest your crop by paying $6 a gallon for diesel fuel, your politics sort of go out the window for maybe one of the truest phrases ever which is 'it's the economy stupid.'"
According to a Civiqs tracking poll, Trump's approval rating in Mississippi stands at 41 percent, with disapproval at 52 percent. Public polling in the Senate race has been limited, but Democratic-commissioned surveys show a close contest. A Change Research poll had Hyde-Smith leading Colom 43 percent to 40 percent, within the margin of error, while a Data for Progress poll from August showed a 44 to 38 lead for Hyde-Smith.
The state saw a competitive gubernatorial race in 2023, with Republican Tate Reeves defeating Democrat Brandon Pressley by just over three points. Democrats point to recent shifts toward their party in other southern states like Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, but acknowledge Mississippi presents a tougher challenge. As one Democratic strategist put it, "I think it's going to be closer than normal. But still a hard piece of candy to eat."
