President Trump's Middle East envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are heading to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran, but they may be walking into a classic Abilene Paradox—a group decision that no one actually supports. The term, coined by Jerry Harvey in 1974, describes a scenario where a group agrees on a course of action that contradicts the true desires of its members. This flawed groupthink now risks derailing Trump's strategic goals and redlines in Iran.
Trump himself is contributing to the confusion. On Tuesday, he announced on Truth Social that he was pausing Project Freedom—the U.S. campaign to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—to see if a deal could be finalized. Yet within 24 hours, he threatened Iran again: “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” This erratic approach is failing to achieve its core objective: a deal where Iran abandons its enriched uranium program and nuclear ambitions in exchange for the U.S. reopening the strait to shipping.
The White House appears more focused on securing a deal than on winning the broader conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made that clear yesterday, stating, “The operation is over—Epic Fury. We are done with that stage of it.” Iran sees this as an opening and is playing for time. Tehran believes Trump is constrained by the 60-day War Powers Resolution deadline, the November midterm elections, and a fragile global economy. As retired U.S. Army Gen. Jack Keane noted, the Iranian regime’s “singular objective” is survival. “At some point they believe they will recover,” he said. “That is their objective. As much as the blockade is going to punish them, these ‘diabolical tyrannical’ leaders are willing to absorb that.”
Until the White House acknowledges that hardliners like IRGC commander Esmail Vahidi are making decisions in Tehran, they are chasing a pipe dream in Islamabad. Unless they negotiate directly with Vahidi, they are wasting time in today’s version of Abilene. The U.S. has shifted from an offensive posture in the Strait of Hormuz to a defensive one, dubbed Project Freedom, portraying the world as “a victim of Iran” while escorting shipping and challenging Iran to stop it. But any deal Iran would accept now would leave the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps intact under Vahidi’s leadership—likely unacceptable to Israel and Gulf states Iran has been attacking.
Iran’s position is clear. In a prepared statement last week, Supreme Leader Khamenei (assuming he wrote it—he has not been seen since his accession) vowed not to give up Iran’s “nuclear and missile capabilities” and rejected Trump’s demand to cede control of the Strait of Hormuz. As Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth try to rebrand the conflict, hostilities continue. Iran has not stopped attacks: it renewed cruise missile and drone strikes on the UAE’s Fujairah oil refinery on Monday and fired at U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf. The operation has only been rebranded, not ended.
Did anyone consult Israel? Israel is on the receiving end of Iran’s support for Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shi’a militias, and has weathered ballistic missile and drone attacks. Its national security interests likely outweigh any deal Witkoff and Kushner are negotiating. As Gen. Keane told Fox News, “Right now, we have momentum. We got the blockade going, we’re opening up the Strait of Hormuz by force, because obviously negotiations could not achieve that. I think we’re likely going to go into more full-scale combat operations as the Iranians continue to up the game.”
Time has become the weapon of choice, with each side believing it can outlast the other in a modern-day version of mutual assured destruction. If, as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz says, Trump’s blockade strategy has Iran on the brink, then why let it off the hook? Why make any deal that leaves hardliners in place to threaten Middle East peace for decades? It is time to exit the road to Abilene—a road to nowhere anyone wants to be—and let the U.S. military finish the task.
For more on Trump's shifting Iran policy, see Trump's Abrupt Shift to Iran Peace Talks Sparks Skepticism. And for the latest on the deal framework, read Trump Halts Iran Strait Campaign as Deal Framework Emerges.
