During the second Iraq War, General David Petraeus famously asked: “Tell Me How This Ends.” That question is now urgent for Operation Epic Fury, the undeclared conflict with Iran that risks becoming a quagmire. Since the Korean War, only the George H.W. Bush administration fully grasped that while the U.S. military wins battles, it struggles to win wars. The first Gulf War was a textbook response to aggression; critics who wanted Bush to march to Baghdad in 1991 learned how catastrophic that would have been when his son did exactly that.
At some point, the full story of this misjudged application of American power will be written. President Trump may have believed that after last year’s 12-day war and the snatch of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, U.S. military power was unlimited. Or perhaps Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced him Iran would be a walkover. The public will eventually learn the truth, but the question remains: What next?
Negotiations and sporadic ceasefires now define the conflict. Churchill’s wisdom—“jaw, jaw and not war war”—is preferable, but how long can this continue without resolution? All the ships, planes, submarines, and personnel cannot remain at general quarters indefinitely without enormous cost. With gas and fertilizer prices soaring and food costs set to follow, Trump and Republicans face November elections that could cost them control of one or both houses of Congress. The clock is ticking, and someone must be listening in both Washington and Tehran.
The wild card is Israel. Netanyahu and Mossad appear to have played no direct role in negotiations, but their actions in Lebanon remain a sticking point for Tehran. Without a regime change favorable to Jerusalem, Iran will eventually build a nuclear weapon, even if it takes decades. The existential threat to Israel persists regardless of any settlement.
As Defense Secretary Hegseth has defended Iran operations amid criticism, Trump faces two bad choices: get in or get out. He could declare victory and pursue a diplomatic outcome similar to the Obama-era nuclear deal, which despite its flaws would have prevented an Iranian bomb if all parties complied. The debate over Ayatollah Khamenei’s 2003 fatwa against nuclear weapons remains unresolved; his representatives have said Iran’s nuclear weapons are its people, and Khamenei himself stated Iran would not build a bomb. It’s unclear whether new leadership will abide by those comments.
Iran does not share America’s urgency. In Afghanistan, the saying went that while the West had all the wrist watches, the Afghans had all the time—the Taliban could win by not losing. Iran has reached similar conclusions. History is not encouraging: Richard Nixon promised a secret plan to end the Vietnam War, but it took seven years for the North to win. If Iranian negotiators are as tough as Hanoi’s, Trump is in for a rough ride.
A truce could offer a long-term standoff, as the Korean War did without a formal peace agreement. The Strait of Hormuz could reopen, and some normality might return. But a spark could restart a conflagration that cannot be contained. And what does Israel do? Meanwhile, a recent survey shows $6,000 debt pushes average households to the brink, compounding economic pressures that could shape the midterms.
Trump has one great skill: he almost magically avoids catastrophes wrought by bankruptcies, criminal charges, and impeachments. Some of that magic is needed now.
