President Trump's formidable campaign treasury is casting a long shadow over the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas this week, as Republican operatives and candidates grow increasingly uneasy about how his political machine is deploying its resources in the current cycle.
Last week, Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., made its first significant foray into the election season with a $10 million advertising purchase aimed at bolstering Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate bid. This move has ignited a flurry of speculation among party insiders about where the next tranche of cash will land, especially with control of the Senate hanging in the balance. Trump has repeatedly boasted of having access to over $1 billion, a figure that both emboldens and unnerves his party.
“With less than two months to the midterms, that causes hand-wringing behind the scenes from some candidates and staff, but Trump is the one who raised it. It's 100 percent his call and he has shown in the past he knows best how to use it,” said John Ullyot, a senior adviser to Trump's 2016 campaign.
Yet, not all Republicans share that confidence, particularly in Texas. One GOP strategist expressed concern that the initial investment may fall short of what's needed to counter the well-funded campaign of Democratic challenger James Talarico. “It's going to take more than $10 million to get the job done,” the strategist said. “$10 million of MAGA Inc. money versus $10 million of Talarico hard dollar campaign cash isn't close because a super PAC ad in Texas is probably going to cost you 50 percent more than a campaign ad.”
The strategist also lamented that had Senator John Cornyn been the nominee, Texas would have been a less financially draining battleground, freeing up resources for other contested states like Ohio, Maine, Michigan, and Alaska. The emergence of competitive races in traditionally red states such as Kansas and Nebraska only adds to the concern, as those seats, while likely staying Republican, illustrate the treacherous national terrain the GOP faces.
“It's just money that is not going to be spent to save a seat in Ohio or in Alaska or potentially Kansas and that's a real problem,” the strategist added.
Despite these anxieties, Republicans maintain a clear cash edge at the party and super PAC levels. As of the end of June, the three GOP committees and their affiliated super PACs reported $657 million on hand, compared to $334 million for their Democratic counterparts. That figure does not even include the $400 million stashed in MAGA Inc.'s war chest.
However, a recent report from The New York Times revealed that MAGA Inc. is behind a new entity, No Going Back PAC Inc., which has already reserved $49 million in advertising across key battlegrounds. The reservations target Senate races in Michigan ($14.9 million), Ohio ($11.1 million), New Hampshire ($10.6 million), Alaska ($7.7 million), North Carolina ($1.9 million), and Georgia ($1.3 million), as well as a district in Pennsylvania. The Hill has reached out to MAGA Inc. for comment.
“Now that they're starting to hand out money, it would seem the indication is they're going to focus on the Senate as a real firewall,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist. “It's where their money could make some arguable difference.”
Forecasting models give Democrats a 68 percent chance of taking the House and a 51 percent chance of flipping the Senate, according to DDHQ. Trump, meanwhile, told reporters last week that he plans to allocate $400 to $500 billion to assist Republicans in the coming weeks. “We're going to spend a lot of money because we don't want to lose our country,” he said. “I'm going to be making contributions to various campaigns. People that I think are going to win and can win or are close to winning. I'm going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us.”
Another aligned group, Securing American Greatness, also launched its first general election ads last week as part of a $995,000 national buy, focusing heavily on Trump and touting the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump has signaled a vigorous campaign schedule in the closing days, including a possible trip to Alaska to support Senator Dan Sullivan.
“I think an interesting thing to watch will be how he spends one, his money, and two, his time. And the second is probably the more important of the two,” said a former White House official. “Team Trump is telling us to prepare for maybe as many as an event every single day out on the trail. That certainly would help a lot of Republicans, not all, but certainly the majority.”
Stutzman dismissed the criticism that MAGA Inc. has been slow to spend, arguing it's too early to judge. “It needs to start spending, and it appears that it has begun,” he said. “We'll see how much of the bank continues to be emptied out here over the next couple of weeks, but the more valid criticism is just where the White House has positioned the party on a variety of issues from tariffs to the war.”
Still, some Republicans worry that even a spending advantage may not be enough to stave off a blue wave. “Politics is like a sporting event,” the strategist said. “At the start of the fourth quarter, it really feels like it's falling in Democrats' favor. Now again, that doesn't mean that it can't be reversed, that it can't be.”
As Trump takes center stage at the Dallas convention, his financial decisions will be scrutinized by every Republican on the ballot. The party's hopes may rest on how effectively he deploys his vast resources. Meanwhile, the president's proposed $5,000 dividend to voters has added another layer of intrigue to the midterm messaging.
