Nevada's gubernatorial contest remains a dead heat, according to a new survey released Thursday. The Emerson College Polling and KLAS-TV poll shows Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford narrowly edging out Republican Governor Joe Lombardo, 42% to 40%, among likely voters—a statistical tie given the poll's 3.7-point margin of error.
The survey, conducted September 5-8, underscores the deep partisan and demographic divides shaping the race. Ford holds a commanding 31-point lead among Hispanic voters and an 11-point advantage with women. Lombardo counters with a 13-point edge among white voters and a 6-point lead among men.
The race has been rated a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, and a November 2025 Emerson poll had the two candidates tied at 41%. Ford's narrow lead in the latest survey reflects a competitive environment in a state that has swung narrowly in recent presidential elections—Trump won Nevada by 3 points in 2024, while Biden took it by a similar margin in 2020.
Lombardo's record and approval
Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, has frequently clashed with Nevada's Democratic-controlled legislature during his first term, vetoing more than 160 bills since taking office in 2023, according to The Nevada Independent. His job approval in the new poll stands at 40%, with 39% disapproving and 21% neutral.
The governor, who endorsed Trump in 2024, has sought to balance support for the president with occasional criticism. Earlier this year, he told The Nevada Independent he believes Trump is doing well but does not always agree with his presentation style.
Ford attacks on economy and Trump
Ford has hammered Lombardo over his alignment with Trump amid rising fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict and the president's trade disputes with Canada. In a social media post Wednesday, Ford wrote: "$100 a barrel. $4.98 a gallon in Nevada. That's the cost of a failing Lombardo-Trump economy. Nevada families cannot afford four more years of this."
The poll found that economic concerns dominate voters' priorities, with 43% citing it as their top issue, followed by housing affordability at 15% and healthcare at 11%. Trump's job approval in Nevada stands at 37%, with 55% disapproving.
Lombardo's counterattack
Lombardo has sought to tie Ford to California's Democratic leadership. "For the last three years, I've fought every day to keep Nevada from becoming California," the governor posted last month. "Meanwhile, Aaron Ford is proudly endorsed by Gavin Newsom and wants to bring California's failed, tax-and-spend agenda to our state."
Ford's campaign has not shied away from the endorsement, highlighting it as a sign of broad support. The race is one of the most closely watched gubernatorial contests in the country, with implications for control of state government and the national political landscape.
As the November election approaches, both campaigns are expected to intensify their focus on economic messaging and the record of the Trump administration, which remains a polarizing factor in the Silver State.
