DALLAS — President Trump's formidable campaign war chest is casting a long shadow over the GOP's midterm convention here this week, as party operatives and candidates grow increasingly uneasy about how his political machine has deployed its resources in the 2026 cycle.
Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., made its first significant outlay of the cycle just days before the gathering, unveiling a $10 million ad blitz to bolster Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP's Senate nominee. The move has done little to calm nerves, with many Republicans anxious to see where the next tranche of money lands as the battle for Senate control tightens.
Trump has repeatedly boasted of commanding upwards of $1 billion in campaign funds, a figure that has fueled both hope and hand-wringing among the party faithful. "With less than two months to the midterms, that causes hand-wringing behind the scenes from some candidates and staff, but Trump is the one who raised it. It's 100 percent his call and he has shown in the past he knows best how to use it," said John Ullyot, a senior adviser to Trump's 2016 campaign.
Yet some Republicans are openly skeptical, particularly in Texas. "It's going to take more than $10 million to get the job done," said one Republican strategist, referring to the effort to defeat Democratic challenger James Talarico. "$10 million of MAGA Inc. money versus $10 million of Talarico hard dollar campaign cash isn't close because a super PAC ad in Texas is probably going to cost you 50 percent more than a campaign ad."
The strategist added that Texas would be a lesser financial drain if incumbent Sen. John Cornyn had secured the nomination, freeing up resources for more competitive battlegrounds like Ohio, Maine, Michigan, and Alaska. Meanwhile, once-safe red states like Kansas and Nebraska have seen their Senate races tighten, underscoring the challenging national environment for Republicans.
"It's just money that is not going to be spent to save a seat in Ohio or in Alaska or potentially Kansas and that's a real problem," the strategist said.
Despite the grumbling, Republicans maintain a clear cash edge at the party and super PAC levels. The three GOP committees and their allied super PACs reported $657 million in cash on hand at the end of June, versus $334 million for Democrats—a figure that doesn't include the $400 million banked by MAGA Inc.
According to The New York Times, MAGA Inc. is behind a new group, No Going Back PAC Inc., which has reserved $49 million to boost Republicans in key states. The reservations target six Senate races and Rep. Scott Perry's Pennsylvania district, with $14.9 million in Michigan, $11.1 million in Ohio, $10.6 million in New Hampshire, $7.7 million in Alaska, $1.9 million in North Carolina, and $1.3 million in Georgia. The Hill has reached out to MAGA Inc. for comment.
"Now that they're starting to hand out money, it would seem the indication is they're going to focus on the Senate as a real firewall," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist. "It's where their money could make some arguable difference."
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 68 percent chance of winning the House and a 51 percent chance of flipping the Senate. Trump told reporters last week he plans to allocate $400 to $500 billion to help Republicans in the coming weeks. "We're going to spend a lot of money because we don't want to lose our country," the president said. "I'm going to be making contributions to various campaigns. People that I think are going to win and can win or are close to winning. I'm going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us."
Another Trump-aligned group, Securing American Greatness, rolled out its first general election ads last week with a $995,000 national buy, heavily focused on Trump and touting the GOP's passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump has also previewed a campaign swing in the final days before Election Day, including a trip to Alaska to support Sen. Dan Sullivan.
"I think an interesting thing to watch will be how he spends one, his money, and two, his time. And the second is probably the more important of the two," said one former White House official. "Team Trump is telling us to prepare for maybe as many as an event every single day out on the trail. That certainly would help a lot of Republicans, not all, but certainly the majority."
Stutzman argued that criticism of MAGA Inc.'s spending has been premature. "It needs to start spending, and it appears that it has begun," he said. "We'll see how much of the bank continues to be emptied out here over the next couple of weeks, but the more valid criticism is just where the White House has positioned the party on a variety of issues from tariffs to the war."
Still, some Republicans worry that a spending advantage may not be enough to avert a Democratic wave. "Politics is like a sporting event," the Republican strategist said. "At the start of the fourth quarter, it really feels like it's falling in Democrats' favor. Now again, that doesn't mean that it can't be reversed, that it can't be..."
