A new survey from Texas Public Opinion Research, released Friday, puts Democratic state Rep. James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 3 points among likely general election voters in the Texas Senate race. The poll, conducted May 27-28, shows Talarico at 47 percent support, Paxton at 44 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
The survey was taken immediately after Tuesday's GOP primary runoff, where Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn, a race that drew national attention following President Trump's endorsement of Paxton. The outcome has already shifted the race's dynamics, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moving its rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
A key finding: nearly a third of voters who backed Cornyn in the runoff now say they will support Talarico in November. Only 44 percent of those Cornyn voters plan to stick with Paxton, and 23 percent remain undecided. Among those defecting to Talarico, more than half cited Paxton's 2015 securities fraud indictment and his 2023 impeachment by Republican state lawmakers—though he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.
Talarico has actively courted Cornyn's supporters. In a social media post after the runoff, he wrote: "We don't agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service. To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign." His campaign also posted Paxton's mugshot online and highlighted criticism from GOP lawmakers who voted to impeach him.
Paxton, meanwhile, has gone after Talarico's personal choices, including his past vegan diet and a comment that "God is nonbinary." Trump piled on after Paxton's victory, calling Talarico "the worst TEXAS candidate I have ever seen" on Truth Social, and pledging to hold "big, beautiful rallies" for Paxton. Trump's post also attacked Talarico as an "open borders advocate" who "believes there are 6 genders" and is "insulting to Jesus Christ."
The race has grown increasingly personal. Talarico told MS NOW: "Ken Paxton has a criminal record; I have a legislative record." The two campaigns have ramped up ads targeting each other's character. Paxton's legal troubles—including his 2015 indictment and the 2023 impeachment—remain a central issue, especially with voters who backed Cornyn.
Low runoff turnout has also raised concerns among some Republicans about Paxton's ability to mobilize the base in a general election, as noted in recent analysis. The Texas Senate race is now one of the most closely watched in the country, with both parties pouring resources into the contest.
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll surveyed 1,670 likely voters and has a margin of error of about 2.8 percentage points. The survey's timing, right after the contentious GOP primary, captures a volatile electorate still adjusting to the new matchup.
