A fresh survey from Emerson College and The Hill suggests that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would enter the 2028 general election as a slightly stronger Republican standard-bearer than Vice President JD Vance, though both face an uphill battle against at least one prominent Democrat.
The poll, which tested five hypothetical head-to-head contests, found Rubio outperforming Vance against four of the five Democratic contenders. The lone exception came against former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who held a five-point lead over both Republicans—a result that underscores his broad appeal in early trial heats.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom each posted five-point leads over Vance, but their advantages narrowed to three and two points, respectively, when matched against Rubio. Former Vice President Kamala Harris edged Vance by four points (49-45), but Rubio flipped that result, leading Harris by five.
Progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) was the only Democrat to lose to either Republican, trailing Vance by two points and Rubio by five. Notably, the share of undecided voters ranged from six to eleven percent across all matchups, with the largest undecided bloc appearing in a Vance-Ocasio-Cortez contest.
The survey, conducted among 1,000 registered voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Neither Vance nor Rubio has formally declared a 2028 bid, but they have consistently ranked as the top two choices among likely GOP primary voters in recent polling.
Rubio, who finished third in the 2016 Republican primary behind Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), told Vanity Fair last year that he would defer to Vance should the vice president seek the nomination. Vance, meanwhile, said in June that he would discuss a potential run with his wife, second lady Usha Vance, after the November midterms. The couple welcomed their fourth child in July.
“The way I make decisions is, I try not to make them until I absolutely must,” Vance told Robert Costa on CBS Sunday Morning.
The 2028 GOP primary will be the first since 2012 without Trump on the ballot. While the president has not publicly endorsed a preferred successor, The Washington Post reported earlier this month that he recently told donors in the Oval Office, “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD.” Trump later downplayed the remark, calling Vance “great” but insisting it is “way too early to even be thinking about that.”
Trump has also floated the idea of a combined ticket, telling Miranda Devine on the New York Post’s “Pod Force One” in June that a Vance-Rubio pairing would make “a great team.”
“I don’t know how you beat them if they’re together,” he said.
For now, the early numbers suggest that while Vance remains the favorite in GOP primary polls, Rubio may offer the party a broader general election appeal—particularly in a race against Harris. As the primary season approaches, both men are likely to face increasing pressure to clarify their intentions, especially with rising health concerns and global supply disruptions shaping the political landscape.
