Republican hopes of using redistricting to pad their House majority are looking increasingly shaky, according to a new forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). The election handicapper's latest model gives Democrats a 68 percent chance of retaining control of the chamber, versus just 32 percent for the GOP, undercutting the assumption that GOP-drawn maps would deliver a significant advantage in November.
In a detailed analysis published Tuesday, DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley noted that while Republicans did see modest gains in some redrawn states, those wins are far from enough to offset Democratic strength in the rest of the country. “In Decision Desk HQ's forecast, Democrats not only achieve an average gain of 13 seats in the states with unchanged boundaries, they also gain an average of two seats across the nine states that redistricted,” Skelley wrote on Substack.
The model's 1 million simulations produced an average Democratic majority of 229-206, a net gain of 14 seats. But Skelley stressed that the party's real path to the majority runs through the 41 states that did not redraw their maps. “In our forecast for the unchanged states, Democrats win an average of nearly 150 seats, up from the 137 they currently control,” he explained. “Meanwhile, the redistricted states do not come close to offsetting that shift.”
Texas and Florida: GOP Gains Fall Short
In Texas, the first state to redraw its map after President Trump pushed red states to act, Republicans are averaging less than a two-seat gain—roughly three seats short of what they had hoped. The new lines, which include several Latino-majority districts, have actually given some Democratic incumbents a slight edge. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, both Texas Democrats, are projected to hold their seats. Skelley also noted that Democrats have about a one-in-three chance of unseating Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District, where Trump's 2020 margin under the new lines would have been just two points, despite an 18-point win in the same area previously.
Florida offers a similar story. Despite GOP mapmakers targeting four Democratic-held seats, at least two of those incumbents are favored to survive, and Skelley sees no overall shift toward Republicans. Ohio also appears likely to underperform for the GOP, with three Democrats expected to keep their seats and one Republican district—Rep. Max Miller's—now rated a toss-up amid abuse allegations involving his wife.
California and Missouri: Legal and Political Battles
California, the first Democratic-led state to retaliate with its own redistricting measure, could deliver Democrats four of the five seats where they see pickup opportunities. However, Skelley said Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) remains a “smaller underdog” in the 22nd District, a seat Trump would have narrowly won in 2024. “A potential Republican win there, as well as outside shots in districts such as the 13th, 45th, and GOP-held 48th help keep Democrats from averaging the full-on five-seat gain they want,” he added.
Meanwhile, Missouri has become the latest flashpoint in the redistricting fight. The state's Supreme Court unanimously ruled that a GOP-drawn map cannot take effect unless voters approve it in a fall referendum, leaving the state's congressional map in limbo. DDHQ has frozen its Missouri forecast until the legal battle is resolved, Skelley said. The court's decision has confused voters and prompted anger, with Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) telling The Hill that constituents are frustrated by the uncertainty. Trump called the ruling a “Dark Day for 'Justice' in Missouri,” claiming the election process had been “disturbed.”
The Missouri situation is part of a broader trend of redistricting disputes, as seen in Missouri's redistricting turmoil and the contempt hearing for the state's secretary of state. With courts and voters pushing back, the GOP's redistricting advantage may prove far less decisive than once assumed.
