A fresh Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday reveals a notable enthusiasm gap between the two parties' bases ahead of the November midterms. Only 30% of voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 say they are "very enthusiastic" about casting ballots, while nearly half of Kamala Harris's 2024 supporters—48%—express the same level of excitement.
The survey, conducted from September 30 through October 5 among 2,848 respondents, shows that Trump's coalition is markedly less fired up than Harris's. Among Trump voters, 21% say they are moderately enthusiastic, 10% are lukewarm, and another 10% are "very" unenthusiastic. About 30% say they are neither enthusiastic nor unenthusiastic or skipped the question.
By contrast, Harris voters show stronger engagement: 18% are just enthusiastic, only 7% are lukewarm, and a mere 6% are "very" unenthusiastic. Roughly 20% fall into the neutral or no-answer category.
The enthusiasm gap comes alongside Trump's approval rating, which remains stuck at 32% in the same polling, with 65% disapproving of his job performance. The president's support among Hispanic voters—a demographic where he made gains in 2024, particularly in Texas—has also slipped. Just 24% of Hispanic respondents now approve of Trump's handling of the presidency, while 26% back Republican candidates in the upcoming elections.
This erosion of support casts a long shadow over Republican hopes for the midterms. Trump has repeatedly urged voters to treat the election as if he were "on the ballot," a rhetorical strategy that may be losing its resonance.
Compounding the political headwinds is the ongoing Iran war, now in its eighth month. Trump has sought to downplay rising gas prices, calling them a "very inexpensive price to pay" to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. At a Nebraska rally on Monday, he escalated his rhetoric, suggesting the Iranian regime could "take out" Los Angeles and San Diego. The remarks drew sharp backlash from California Democrats, with Governor Gavin Newsom going so far as to suggest the comments warrant invoking the 25th Amendment. Trump doubled down on the threat on Wednesday evening.
The president has also floated the possibility that the Iran conflict could help Republicans at the ballot box, telling reporters earlier this month that the war "should help" his party's chances. However, the new polling suggests that the opposite may be true, as voters' enthusiasm for Trump's agenda appears to be waning.
Political analysts point to a combination of factors—the prolonged Iran conflict, economic anxieties, and Trump's polarizing rhetoric—that could dampen turnout among his base. Meanwhile, Democrats appear energized, potentially setting the stage for a competitive midterm landscape.
As the campaign season intensifies, Trump's ability to galvanize his supporters will be critical. The repeated Iran strike warnings may resonate with some, but the enthusiasm gap suggests that many Trump voters are staying home or are simply unenthused. The White House's signals of a potential strike before midterms could shift the dynamic, but for now, the polling paints a troubling picture for the GOP.
With control of both chambers up for grabs, the coming weeks will test whether Trump can reignite his base or whether Democrats' higher enthusiasm translates into electoral gains. The bipartisan talks over executive power and reclaiming congressional authority may also factor into voter sentiment, as the political landscape remains volatile.
