Democrat Mary Peltola has once again widened her advantage in Alaska's U.S. Senate race as the latest batch of ballots pushed her nearly 4 points ahead of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, a margin of more than 10,000 votes, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
The former congresswoman netted roughly 2,000 votes from the newest tally, bringing her to 49.8 percent of the vote—just shy of the majority she would need to avoid an instant runoff under the state's ranked-choice voting system. With 91 percent of ballots counted, Peltola's chances of crossing the 50 percent threshold are looking increasingly realistic.
In a statement posted to X on Friday, Peltola's campaign again claimed victory, asserting that "there is no mathematical path for Sullivan to win this race." The statement added that once all remaining votes are tallied, "Mary will decisively be elected as Alaska's next United States Senator." Sullivan's campaign account has been silent since Nov. 4, and DDHQ has yet to call the race as of Saturday morning.
Ballots will continue to trickle in through next week, with a final count due by Nov. 18. If Peltola does not reach a majority by then, the ranked-choice tabulation would kick in—a scenario that carries added significance given the Trump administration's earlier legal action.
The Justice Department had sued to block certification of the Senate race if Sullivan lost, citing the presence of another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot. The administration argued that if Peltola won by fewer votes than the non-incumbent Sullivan received, the candidate's presence could have confused voters. That lawsuit was ultimately dismissed, and if Peltola's lead holds, the administration would have no basis to revisit the argument.
A Peltola victory would be a significant pickup for Democrats, giving the party a 56th Senate seat following an already strong midterm performance. It would also complicate Republican efforts to reclaim the chamber in 2028, even if the GOP captures the White House.
Elsewhere in Alaska, DDHQ projected that Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins won the gubernatorial race, marking a rare Democratic pickup in the state. In the U.S. House contest, Republican Nick Begich III holds the lead, but DDHQ projects the race will go to ranked-choice voting.
