In a dramatic turn in Alaska's unresolved Senate contest, Democrat Mary Peltola has moved ahead of the combined vote tally of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan, according to the latest ballot drop released late Tuesday.
With 84% of ballots counted, Peltola holds 49% of the vote, while Sen. Sullivan trails with 47.2%, and independent Dan J. Sullivan has 1.7%, according to unofficial results from Alaska's Division of Elections. The former congresswoman's lead now stands at 118,926 votes, compared to the Sullivans' combined 118,703.
The development has energized Peltola's campaign, which sees a path to victory as remaining ballots lean Democratic. Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, noted on X that Peltola "now has more votes than both Sullivans combined and a solid chance of reaching 50 percent to avoid [ranked choice voting], and will if the final drops are as blue as they were in the primary."
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, meaning if no candidate secures a majority of first-choice votes, an instant runoff occurs, with the last-place candidate eliminated and their votes redistributed until a winner emerges. Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, declared that Sen. Sullivan has no "viable path to reelection," adding, "We remain exceptionally confident that Mary will be elected when every vote is counted, and Mary is eager to take her fight to the United States Senate."
The unusual three-way race has drawn national attention, including from former President Trump, who has repeatedly questioned the election's integrity and suggested that the independent Sullivan's presence on the ballot could split the Republican vote. Trump posted a graphic on Truth Social contrasting the combined Sullivan vote with Peltola's tally, using a green checkmark for the Sullivans and a red X for Peltola.
The Justice Department had filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification if Sen. Sullivan lost, arguing that the spoiler candidate's name could confuse voters. A federal judge dismissed the case, allowing the election to proceed.
Alaska remains one of the last two Senate races yet to be called, alongside Mississippi, where Democrat Scott Colom has extended his lead over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. As of late Tuesday, Colom led 49.11% to 48.79%, a margin of more than 3,000 votes, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Peltola's surge builds on her earlier narrow lead over Sullivan as counting continued. Her campaign has also been involved in legal disputes over ballot records, having sued the state over rejected ballots.
Meanwhile, Alaska voters also approved a ballot measure clarifying citizenship requirements for voting, and the state is awaiting a Supreme Court decision on a separate case involving property seizure. The outcome of the Senate race remains pivotal as control of the chamber hangs in the balance.
