A fresh survey from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs reveals that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has pulled ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the upcoming Republican primary runoff. Among likely voters, 48 percent support Paxton, while 45 percent back Cornyn, and 7 percent remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
The runoff, set for the end of May, comes after neither candidate secured a majority in the initial primary. Paxton, who trailed Cornyn in that first round, now appears to have gained momentum. The poll, conducted from April 28 to May 1, surveyed 1,200 respondents.
Both Republicans have aggressively sought former President Donald Trump's endorsement, a coveted prize in Texas GOP politics. Days after advancing to the runoff, Trump hinted he would endorse one candidate and ask the other to drop out. However, the formal withdrawal deadline passed in March without any such announcement from Trump.
Gender breakdowns in the poll show Paxton leading among both men and women. Among men, 49 percent favor Paxton, 46 percent support Cornyn, and 5 percent are unsure. Among women, 47 percent back Paxton, 45 percent choose Cornyn, and 8 percent are undecided.
The general election picture adds a layer of complexity. A separate recent poll from the Texas Public Opinion Research survey found that Democratic nominee James Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Talarico, a state representative, edged Cornyn 44 percent to 41 percent and beat Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent among likely general election voters.
Paxton's legal entanglements remain a backdrop to the race. He recently faced a lawsuit from the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue, which accused him of political retaliation. That case, ActBlue Accuses Texas AG Paxton of Political Retaliation in New Lawsuit, adds another dimension to the attorney general's controversial tenure.
The runoff outcome will have national implications, as Texas remains a critical battleground in the fight for Senate control. Cornyn, a three-term incumbent, has positioned himself as a mainstream conservative, while Paxton has rallied the party's Trump-aligned base.
With the election just weeks away, both campaigns are intensifying their outreach. The poll underscores a tight race where every percentage point matters, and the undecided 7 percent could prove decisive.
