A fresh poll from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media shows Democrat Rob Sand with a narrow lead over Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa's open governor's race, while Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a slim advantage over Democrat Josh Turek in the state's Senate contest.
The survey, conducted Aug. 2-4 among 712 likely voters, found Sand—the state auditor and the only Democrat holding statewide office—backed by 48 percent of respondents, with Lahn at 43 percent. Two percent chose another candidate, and 7 percent were undecided. In the Senate race to replace retiring Republican Joni Ernst, Hinson drew 48 percent support to Turek's 45 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Independent voters are proving pivotal in both contests. According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, independents break decisively for Sand, 58 to 32 percent, and for Turek, 49 to 38 percent. Kimball noted that Sand performs particularly well among swing voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024, with about 1 in 10 Trump voters indicating they would support Sand.
Sand also leads in favorability ratings, with 51 percent viewing him positively—higher than Hinson (44 percent), Turek (42 percent), and Lahn (36 percent). The poll shows Trump's job approval underwater in Iowa, with 43 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
The race has drawn national attention, especially after Trump endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra in the GOP gubernatorial primary, only to see Lahn win. That result broke Trump's streak of primary endorsements toppling incumbents' challengers. Lahn had backing from Turning Point Action and former Rep. Steve King, while Feenstra's loss came despite Trump's late endorsement.
In the Democratic Senate primary, Turek defeated progressive state Sen. Zach Wahls, a victory seen as a win for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in a proxy battle over the party's direction. Cook Political Report rates the governor's race a toss-up and the Senate race as lean Republican, though it shifted the latter toward Democrats after Turek's June win. Decision Desk HQ also rates the Senate race a toss-up, with Hinson narrowly favored.
The poll's credibility interval is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, similar to a margin of error. The results underscore the competitive nature of both races in a state that has trended Republican in recent cycles.
As the fall campaign heats up, Democrats see opportunity in Iowa, especially with independents breaking their way. But Republicans remain confident, with Hinson's lead and Trump's base still energized. The outcome could hinge on turnout and whether Sand can convert his crossover appeal into votes in November.
