Republicans are eyeing New Hampshire as a prime pickup opportunity in the battle for the Senate, fueled by a political dynasty, a popular GOP governor, and a flood of outside cash. The entry of former Sen. John E. Sununu into the race against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has energized the GOP, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report last week shifted the contest toward Republicans, now rating it a toss-up.
Sununu, whose brother and father both served as New Hampshire governors, brings name recognition and a moderate profile that Republicans hope can overcome the state's recent Democratic lean. The Granite State backed Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, and President Trump's approval ratings remain a drag in the state. Still, GOP strategists see Sununu as uniquely positioned to defy the national headwinds.
“If we continue to see high costs and a war that is very unpopular, it's going to be a tough environment for Republicans,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran GOP strategist. “Given all of that, John Sununu is the very best person at this moment to maybe do something that no one expects.”
The GOP is investing heavily, with the MAGA Inc.-aligned No Going Back PAC reserving over $10 million in ad time, according to The New York Times. Overall, Republicans have already spent $6.7 million on aired ads, with more than $25 million in future reservations, per AdImpact. Democrats, by contrast, have spent $4.2 million with nearly $15 million reserved.
On the trail, Pappas is leaning into his local roots, including his family's Puritan Backroom restaurant, which claims to have invented chicken tenders. His campaign is nationalizing the race, painting Sununu as a supporter of Trump's agenda. “John Sununu's record of supporting Donald Trump's disastrous agenda that's driving up costs and hurting Granite Staters stands in stark contrast to Chris Pappas's record of fighting for New Hampshire,” said Pappas campaign manager Rachel Petri.
Sununu, who lost his Senate seat in 2008, argues that Congress has become more dysfunctional and pitches himself as a pragmatist who can “help calm the waters.” He criticizes Pappas as a career politician who hasn't delivered for the state. “I'm excited about the opportunity to draw this contrast of someone like Chris Pappas, who's been in Washington for eight years and hasn't delivered for New Hampshire,” Sununu told Fox News Digital.
Democrats, while acknowledging the race is tight, express frustration that national groups haven't fully engaged. “I think they look at the congressional delegation and say, 'Oh, New Hampshire is an all-Democrat delegation, so it's a give-me.' And then we're like, 'Well, no. Look at our legislature and governor, all Republican,'” said Kathy Sullivan, a former state Democratic Party chair.
Some national Democratic groups push back, noting significant resources are already committed. “We have significant resources committed here, including multiple television and digital ads running throughout the state currently hammering John Sununu for his extensive career lobbying for the same price-gouging corporations making life so unaffordable for families,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for the Senate Democratic leadership's super PAC.
Democrats also hope Trump's endorsement of Sununu will hurt him. Pappas and his allies have suggested Sununu would be a “rubber stamp” for the GOP agenda, and they've pointed to Sununu's name appearing in files related to Jeffrey Epstein. Sununu's campaign has forcefully denied any association, calling the attacks “disgusting.”
As the race tightens, both sides are bracing for a costly and contentious fight. For Republicans, a win in New Hampshire would be a significant boost to their efforts to hold and expand their Senate majority. For Democrats, it's a warning that even seemingly safe blue turf can be contested in a volatile political climate.
