Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo (R) is set to square off against state Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) in the November general election, according to Decision Desk HQ projections. Both candidates secured their party nominations in Tuesday's primary, with Lombardo cruising to victory in the GOP contest despite a tough political landscape for Republicans nationally.
The race is rated a "toss up" by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, underscoring the high stakes in a state that has become a critical bellwether. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, flipped the governor's mansion for the GOP in 2022, the only Republican to do so that cycle. But his path to a second term is anything but certain.
Lombardo has walked a careful line with former President Trump, who endorsed him in 2022 and again in this cycle. The governor endorsed Trump just a month before the Nevada GOP caucuses, but he was also among a handful of Republican governors who declined to sign a letter praising Trump's signature policy bill last year. Earlier this year, Lombardo told The Nevada Independent that he believes Trump is doing a good job, though he doesn't always agree with the president's presentation style.
On the Democratic side, Ford has been a target of Republican attacks over his out-of-state travel, which a Nevada Independent analysis found was largely for professional conferences. Republicans have also hammered him for campaigning with former Vice President Harris and for his record on crime and immigration.
Nevada's economy, heavily dependent on tourism and hospitality, makes voters particularly sensitive to inflation and cost-of-living concerns. The state also has a large Latino and Hispanic electorate, a demographic that was key to Trump's 2024 victory but has shown signs of cooling toward Republicans in recent polling.
The general election will be a test of whether Lombardo can hold onto the coalition that elected him in 2022, while Ford looks to tap into Democratic energy in a state that has trended blue in recent presidential cycles. The outcome could also provide clues about the national mood heading into the midterms.
In a related development, the Nevada GOP primary for an open House seat has heated up, with a Trump endorsement adding to the intrigue. Meanwhile, a progressive candidate in California's 22nd district has secured a general election spot against a GOP incumbent, and South Carolina's governor race is heading to a runoff after a primary defeat.
