President Trump has broken yet another campaign promise, this time on inflation, which remains stubbornly high. Instead of lowering prices, his war with Iran has driven gasoline costs up by 50% year-over-year, according to a new analysis. With the U.S. consuming over 375 million gallons of gas daily, that translates to an extra $189 billion annually coming directly out of Americans' pockets.
The financial toll doesn't stop at the pump. Diesel and jet fuel prices have also spiked, contributing to Spirit Airlines' bankruptcy. Costs for petroleum-based raw materials are rising, and even condom prices are expected to skyrocket. Cumulatively, these increases amount to more than 0.7% of GDP, making this the largest tax hike since the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982. And that's before counting the direct war costs: Trump is asking Congress for up to $200 billion more to fund the conflict.
While technically not a government tax, the price hikes function identically, funneling money from consumers to energy markets due to Trump's decisions. Critics argue the entire federal government is now mobilized around protecting Trump's ego, from punishing James Comey and Jimmy Kimmel to waging unnecessary wars of choice.
From the start, Trump has demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender," claiming he "has all the cards." But Iran hasn't been intimidated like congressional Republicans. Instead, Tehran has seized control of the Strait of Hormuz and the narrative. Trump's naval blockade has been technically effective but has trapped the U.S. in a standoff it can't win. A brief attempt to use the Navy to reopen the strait ended within 48 hours after Iranian attacks.
Iran's social media team summed up the U.S. position succinctly. Despite the regime's brutality, their messaging has been sharp. A workable deal exists to end the war and phase out the "Trump tax," but Trump's ego prevents him from accepting a humiliating climbdown from his surrender demand. He'd rather continue the conflict than admit failure.
Beyond ego, Trump appears unable to grasp the geopolitical realities. He reportedly instituted the blockade believing Iran's infrastructure would physically explode without oil exports—a delusion that should spark a constitutional crisis. Yet Congress can't even pass a war powers resolution rebuking him for starting an open-ended war without approval. Trump's Iran peace plan has also sparked fury among conservative allies, complicating any potential resolution.
The likely endgame is a fudge: Iran agrees to a temporary nuclear pause it no longer needs, Trump lifts sanctions, and Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tolls might be dressed up to comply with the Constantinople Convention and UNCLOS, if nobody looks too closely. Several rounds of negotiation would allow Trump to pretend a final deal is always "two weeks away."
Perhaps Iran could rename the strait the "Strait of Trump" and host a ceremony with a made-up award. If they offer to accept tolls in Trump's meme coin, he'd sign immediately. But even if a deal were signed tomorrow, supply chain disruptions would keep the Trump tax in place for months. Trump's shadow diplomacy, relying on real estate moguls instead of State Department pros, has only deepened the crisis.
In 2009, Rick Santelli's rant launched the Tea Party. Today, the same energy is needed—regardless of party—to stop spending Americans' money just to prop up Trump's self-image.
