After two weeks of paralysis, the Republican blockade that ground House floor business to a halt is beginning to fracture. GOP leaders are cautiously optimistic they can restore regular order as early as Tuesday afternoon, with a key procedural vote scheduled for 1:30 p.m.

The breakthrough centers on a controversial maneuver known as the MIRV process, which allows leadership to merge a standalone bill—in this case, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act—with essential spending legislation. The House Rules Committee on Monday set the stage for attaching the voter ID measure to a State Department appropriations bill.

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Representative Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, one of the 13 Republicans who helped stall floor proceedings before the July Fourth recess, had previously dismissed the MIRV tactic as insufficient. But she shifted her stance this week, posting on X Monday night that she would support the process provided Speaker Mike Johnson attaches the SAVE Act to all appropriations and must-pass bills. “If John Thune strips it out in the Senate that will be on him and the entire country should be watching what he does,” Luna wrote.

Speaker Johnson, when asked Tuesday about the strategy, responded cryptically: “Be watching for lots of MIRVs.” The remark signals leadership’s intent to use the procedural tool repeatedly to force Senate action on the Trump-backed voter ID bill.

Representative Tim Burchett of Tennessee, another holdout, told reporters Tuesday that the MIRV plan “gives us a little more comfort.” While Burchett said he hadn’t made a final decision, he noted, “I think we’re leaning in favor of it, though, from what I understand.”

The SAVE America Act, a priority for President Trump, would require voters to show photo identification and proof of citizenship when registering. But the standoff isn’t solely about voter ID. A separate faction within the House Freedom Caucus is demanding votes on legislation to codify Trump’s border policies and to pursue more aggressive legislative action overall. Representative Chip Roy of Texas remained a firm “no” on the rule as of Monday night, insisting Republicans must deliver on border security and birthright citizenship. “These are all issues people that I represent care about intently, and that we’ve talked about doing. And we need to deliver,” Roy said.

Representative Keith Self of Texas, another Freedom Caucus member who helped block floor action, declined to comment after Tuesday morning’s GOP conference meeting, leaving his vote uncertain.

With a razor-thin majority, Speaker Johnson can afford to lose no more than three Republican votes if all members are present. The pressure is mounting as the clock ticks toward the 1:30 p.m. rule vote. The outcome will test Johnson’s ability to unify his conference and demonstrate that the House can return to normal business amid internal divisions.

For context on the broader political landscape, GOP leaders are planning a press conference as Johnson aims to resolve the House floor standoff. Meanwhile, the standoff echoes other recent legislative battles, such as bipartisan demands for federal action on AI election risks ahead of the midterms. The coming hours will reveal whether the cracks in the blockade become a full break or merely a temporary fissure.