With just over seven weeks until the November midterms, the electoral map is widening. On Wednesday, Sabato's Crystal Ball, a prominent election handicapper, moved eight House races in the Democrats' direction, a sign that the battle for control of the chamber is intensifying.
Two Republican-held seats were downgraded from "leans Republican" to pure toss-ups: Iowa's open 2nd Congressional District and Michigan's 4th, where GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga is seeking another term. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, noted that Huizenga's race "appears to be a highly competitive contest" in a district that backed Donald Trump in 2024, but with "enough uncertainty" to warrant the shift.
A third race moved further into Democratic territory. New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, represented by Republican Tom Kean Jr., is now rated "leans Democratic." Kean, who took a months-long leave of absence earlier this year to seek treatment for depression, faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett. Kondik pointed to polling that showed Kean's approval rating trailing even Trump's in the district. "NJ-7 is the kind of affluent, high educational-attainment district that Republicans have struggled to hold in the Trump era," he wrote. "The district narrowly backed Trump in 2024 but seems poised for a swing back."
The remaining five shifts did not change the expected winner, but they did tighten the outlook. Colorado's 5th District, held by GOP Rep. Jeff Crank, moved from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." Kondik attributed this to a stronger challenge from Democrat Jessica Killin this cycle, noting that "Republican outside groups, including No Going Back PAC (effectively a rebranded arm of MAGA Inc., the president's Super PAC), are spending to defend Crank." He added, "This one merits a more competitive rating even as Crank is still favored."
Two other incumbents saw their races become less safe: Arkansas Rep. French Hill (2nd District) and Ohio Rep. Mike Turner (10th District) both shifted from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican." In addition, open seats in New York's 21st and Nevada's 2nd districts—vacated by GOP Reps. Elise Stefanik and Mark Amodei, respectively—also moved to "likely Republican."
The moves come as polling shows Democrats gaining trust with voters on key issues, and as outside groups pour money into competitive races. The Hill's partner, Decision Desk HQ, now projects a 68 percent chance that Democrats reclaim the House, while the Senate remains nearly a coin flip at 51-49 in favor of the GOP.
The widening battlefield is a warning sign for Republicans, who are defending a slim majority. With control of the House hanging in the balance, both parties are expected to escalate spending and messaging in the coming weeks. As Kondik's analysis suggests, the midterm environment is proving more fluid than many anticipated.
