Iowa's Senate race is now set. Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek will square off this fall for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Joni Ernst, according to Decision Desk HQ projections.
Hinson, a former television reporter and state lawmaker who has represented Iowa's northeastern corner in Congress since 2021, secured the GOP nomination by defeating former state Representative Jim Carlin. She quickly consolidated party support, earning Ernst's endorsement and the backing of President Donald Trump.
Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist who represents a state House district that voted for Trump, emerged from a heated Democratic primary against progressive state Senator Zach Wahls. Recent polling had shown Turek with a comfortable lead over Wahls.
The Democratic primary was widely seen as a proxy battle over the party's ideological direction. Turek enjoyed financial backing from VoteVets and endorsements from former Senator Tom Harkin and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Wahls, a vocal critic of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, had the support of Senator Elizabeth Warren and numerous labor unions.
Harkin, who won his fifth Senate term in 2008, remains the last Democrat to represent Iowa in the upper chamber. The nonpartisan election handicapper rates Ernst's seat as "likely Republican", though Turek's candidacy has energized Democrats hoping to flip the seat.
Primary Dynamics and Endorsements
The primary contest between Turek and Wahls reflected deeper divides within the Democratic Party. Turek's campaign emphasized his military service and bipartisan appeal, while Wahls leaned into progressive activism. The outcome suggests Iowa Democrats are prioritizing electability over ideological purity in a state that has trended rightward in recent cycles.
Hinson's path to the general election was smoother. With Trump's endorsement and Ernst's backing, she easily dispatched Carlin, a conservative challenger. The race now sets up a contrast between Hinson's establishment Republican credentials and Turek's outsider narrative as a Paralympic champion and veteran.
Iowa's Senate race is one of several key contests that will determine control of the chamber. For more on similar dynamics, see our coverage of the Montana Senate primary where Trump-backed candidates are leading. Additionally, the broader primary landscape is shifting; check our analysis of Trump's influence on primaries across six states.
As the campaign heats up, both candidates will need to navigate Iowa's political landscape. Hinson will defend her record in a district that has become more Republican, while Turek will aim to rebuild the coalition that once made Harkin competitive statewide. The outcome could hinge on turnout in rural areas and among independent voters.
