A new Reuters/Ipsos survey reveals that Democrats have pulled ahead of Republicans on economic stewardship for the first time in nearly a decade, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment ahead of the midterms. The poll, conducted from July 29 to Aug. 3, found that 37% of voters prefer the Democratic approach to the economy, while 36% side with the GOP, and 27% remain undecided.
This marks a notable reversal from years of Republican advantage on economic issues, a trend that has now flipped amid President Trump's sagging approval ratings and growing public anxiety over inflation and market volatility. The survey shows Trump's approval at just 35%, only three points above his all-time low, and down two points from a similar poll in July.
Voters are increasingly concerned about affordability, with a separate CNN poll indicating that 73% of adults believe Trump is not prioritizing the nation's top problems. Gas price swings linked to the Iran conflict, rising inflation, and global market instability have all contributed to a more pessimistic economic outlook.
The political implications are significant: among registered voters, 42% say they would back a Democratic candidate in November, versus 37% for Republicans. While redistricting has favored the GOP in several states, analysts identify 36 House races and eight Senate contests as competitive, leaving control of Congress very much in play.
Trump has been campaigning aggressively, holding rallies and tele-town halls to shore up Republican turnout, while dismissing the poll numbers as “fake.” In a Truth Social post Monday, he insisted his “REAL Polling Numbers” are the best ever, citing tax cuts, job growth, border security, and foreign policy wins. He also attacked the “Radical Left’s Fake Poll numbers” and urged supporters to “VOTE REPUBLICAN FOR GREATNESS IN AMERICA!”
But the survey's findings echo warnings from critics, including former aides who have accused the White House of misleading the public on the economy. The data also aligns with a recent Democrats' 8-point midterm advantage in a separate poll, suggesting a broader trend.
Democratic strategists see an opening, but internal divisions remain, as highlighted by a recent report on midterm opportunities and party fractures. The party is also working on a playbook to address costs without increasing the deficit, aiming to capitalize on voter concerns.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,505 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. As the campaign season intensifies, both parties are closely watching these numbers, but the economy remains the decisive issue.
