Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) did not mince words Monday night, declaring that his primary runoff victor, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, “absolutely” jeopardizes the party’s hold on a crucial Senate seat. When a reporter asked if Paxton endangers the general election prospects, Cornyn responded bluntly: “Absolutely.” He added, “I stand by everything I said during the whole campaign,” reinforcing the sharp criticisms he leveled throughout the bitter primary race.
The runoff, held May 26, saw turnout plummet to just 7% of registered voters—a steep drop from the March 3 primary when Cornyn led with 42% of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 40.5%. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) garnered 13% in that earlier contest. Cornyn attributed his loss to the drastic decline in turnout: “Four hundred thousand votes that I got on March 3 didn’t show up on May 26. That’s a much bigger problem for our country, I believe, when you have such low voter turnout. I’m not sure what to do about it.” He noted that “strange things happen when only 7 percent of registered voters show up for a runoff.”
The senator downplayed the effect of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton, which came just a week before the primary. While observers credited Trump with swinging the race, Cornyn argued that the impact was limited: “I think it wasn’t as big as he thought but certainly his loyalists were the ones that showed up.” This dynamic, he suggested, allowed a motivated minority to override the broader electorate’s preference.
Despite the internal friction, national Republican leaders are rallying behind Paxton. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has endorsed him, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) vowed last week that the party would go “all in” to secure the seat. “We’ve got to pivot and go all in to make sure that we keep Texas red, that he wins, and that we keep a far-left liberal out of the United States Senate,” Thune said on “The Hugh Hewitt Show.” He emphasized that the seat is “very key to our majority, which will determine the future of this country.”
The runoff outcome has fueled broader concerns about the GOP’s electoral math. A recent poll suggested that Democratic challenger Talarico edges Paxton by three points, highlighting the vulnerability Cornyn warns about. Meanwhile, some GOP strategists have criticized Trump’s intervention as a costly blunder, arguing it elevated a candidate with legal baggage and weak general election appeal. The parallels between Paxton and other scandal-tainted populists have drawn comparisons to the playbook of figures like former Rep. George Santos, as explored in analyses of populist scandal politics.
Cornyn’s stark assessment underscores the tension between the party’s establishment and its Trump-aligned wing. With the NRSC and Thune now fully behind Paxton, the question is whether the attorney general can broaden his appeal beyond the loyalist base that delivered him the nomination—or if the low-turnout dynamic will repeat in November, handing Democrats a pickup opportunity in a state that has been reliably red for decades.
