The Cook Political Report, a leading nonpartisan election handicapper, has changed its rating for New Hampshire's open Senate seat to a pure toss-up, a development that underscores the growing competitiveness of a race Democrats had hoped to hold with relative ease.
The shift, announced this week, moves the contest between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and Republican former Sen. John Sununu out of the “Lean Democrat” column, signaling that national Republicans see a genuine opportunity to pick up a seat in a state that has trended blue in recent presidential cycles but remains independent-minded at the state level.
The seat is coming open because Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who has served since 2009, is retiring. Pappas, a moderate Democrat from Manchester, won his party's primary last week, defeating progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. Sununu, who served one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009, emerged from the GOP primary without a serious challenge.
A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in late August found Sununu leading Pappas narrowly, 45 percent to 43 percent, within the margin of error. That survey, taken before the primaries, suggested the race is essentially dead even, a stark contrast to the national environment, where several other Senate contests have moved in Democrats' favor in recent months.
New Hampshire may prove to be an outlier in that trend. The state's voters have shown a willingness to split tickets, and Sununu benefits from deep name recognition and a popular political family. His brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu, remains well-liked, and their father, also named John, served as governor in the 1980s and chaired the state GOP. That legacy gives Sununu a built-in advantage in a state where retail politics and personal connections matter.
Jessica Taylor, an editor at Cook, said the amount of money national Republicans are pouring into New Hampshire is a warning sign for Democrats. “Even in a light blue state, the amount of money national Republicans have dedicated to this race is a flashing red light for Democrats,” she said in a statement.
The race is one of several where Republicans are banking on long-shot Senate comebacks to help them reclaim the majority. Sununu, who has been out of the Senate for 18 years, is attempting to follow in the footsteps of former Sen. Scott Brown, who is also trying to return to the chamber after a lengthy absence.
Pappas, for his part, has sought to cast himself as a pragmatic dealmaker, emphasizing his work on infrastructure and veterans' issues. But he faces an uphill climb in a state where Republicans have been competitive in statewide races, and the Pappas-Sununu matchup is now widely seen as one of the most consequential of the cycle.
The outcome could hinge on turnout and the broader political climate. With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, both parties are expected to invest heavily in the Granite State in the final weeks. The Cook report's move is a clear signal that Republicans believe they can win here, and Democrats are bracing for a fight that could go down to the wire.
As the midterm elections approach, New Hampshire's Senate race is shaping up to be a bellwether for whether the national mood favors the GOP or the Democrats. The state's independent voters, who often decide close contests, will be closely watched.
