A fresh survey from The New York Times and Siena College indicates that Republican Senator Susan Collins holds a narrow 3-point lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Maine's closely watched Senate contest. The poll, conducted from September 15-22 in partnership with The Portland Press Herald and partly funded by the Maine Trust for Local News, shows Collins commanding 49 percent support among 619 likely voters, while Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate, trails at 46 percent. The remaining 5 percent are undecided, and the incumbent's edge falls within the survey's margin of error of roughly 5 points.
The demographic breakdown reveals a polarized electorate. Jackson leads Collins by 9 points among women, 18 points among voters aged 30-44, and a substantial 34 points among Hispanic voters. Conversely, Collins holds strong advantages among men (16 points), voters aged 45-64 (19 points), white voters (6 points), and Black voters (18 points). These numbers suggest that the race will hinge on turnout among key voting blocs in a state that has trended Democratic in recent presidential cycles.
Jackson, a progressive who lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary in June to former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, entered the race in July after replacing Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who withdrew amid allegations of sexual assault that he denied. Jackson's platform includes Medicare for All, abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and raising taxes on billionaires and corporations. He has also sought to tie Collins to President Trump, who lost Maine in all three of his presidential campaigns.
However, Collins has worked to distance herself from the president on several occasions this summer. She criticized Trump's tariff war with Canada, voted against the confirmation of Attorney General Todd Blanche, and has taken other votes that break with the administration. Her bipartisan posture is evident in her recent collaboration with independent Senator Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats, to urge the Senate Commerce Committee to take up House-passed legislation extending a pause on whaling regulations—a bill championed by Maine's lobster industry and sponsored by outgoing Representative Jared Golden.
The race is pivotal for Democrats' hopes of retaking the Senate, where they need a net gain of four seats. As of Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ gave Jackson a 54 percent chance of victory, reflecting the competitive nature of the contest. Recent polling in other battlegrounds has shown Democrats ahead in key Senate races in Michigan and New Hampshire, but Maine remains a toss-up. The outcome could hinge on moderate voters, who have shown mixed signals in national surveys. While some analysts argue that moderate voters aren't asking Democrats to move right, Collins's appeal to independents and Republicans who are wary of Trump's extremes may prove decisive.
The Cook Political Report recently shifted Kansas and South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats, but Maine has not seen a similar move, underscoring the difficulty of unseating a well-known incumbent. Collins's ability to fend off Jackson will depend on her success in maintaining support among the state's older, white, and male voters while limiting her losses among women and younger demographics.
The poll's release comes as the Senate campaign enters its final stretch, with both candidates ramping up their messaging. Jackson has hammered Collins on her votes on healthcare and taxes, while Collins has emphasized her seniority and ability to deliver for Maine. The race remains too close to call, and both campaigns are bracing for a tight finish.
