With the 2026 midterms approaching, attorney and former D.C. Democratic Party chair A. Scott Bolden is sounding an alarm: don't assume the polls are destiny. While many forecasters see Democrats favored to flip the House and possibly the Senate, Bolden cautions that voter complacency — or Republican efforts to suppress the vote — could keep the GOP in charge.
In a new op-ed, Bolden argues that President Trump's low approval ratings and strong Democratic candidates suggest a wave, but history shows predictions can fail. He cites the 2016 election, when forecasters gave Hillary Clinton a 70–99% chance of winning, only to see Trump prevail. "Don't count your chickens before they hatch," he writes.
The stakes: Democracy itself
Bolden contends that a Republican-held Congress would empower Trump to continue what he calls "incompetent, destructive, corrupt and authoritarian actions," including a costly confrontation with Iran and efforts to undermine election integrity. He points to Trump's false claims about the 2020 election and his attempts to suppress votes, warning that the president may try to overturn Democratic victories as "rigged."
The attorney stresses that democracy is not a spectator sport. "We all have a responsibility to get on the field and cast ballots," he writes, urging Americans to vote for Democrats between now and Election Day on Nov. 3.
Historical context and voter turnout
Bolden reminds readers of the long struggle to expand voting rights, from white male landowners to all citizens, and the sacrifices made during the civil rights movement. He notes that U.S. voter turnout lags behind other nations, hovering around 60% in presidential years and 40% in midterms. The 2018 midterm saw 49% turnout, the highest since 1914, but it dipped to 46% in 2022.
Early voting is already underway in several states. Bolden urges Democrats to focus on turning out voters who are "sick and tired of spineless congressional Republicans" who have given Trump a blank check. He argues that Congress should act as a co-equal branch, not a rubber stamp.
A call to action
Bolden dismisses Trump's characterization of Democrats as communists, instead comparing the president's iron-fisted style to that of dictators in China, Russia, and North Korea — leaders Trump has praised. This, he says, makes Trump not just an embarrassment but a national security risk.
He appeals to independents and disillusioned Republicans to restore "America's true greatness" by electing Democratic majorities. "There is no better way to protect our country from Trump's misrule," he concludes, "and to preserve and honor our Constitution and the rule of law."
Bolden's warning comes as split-ticket voting may threaten GOP prospects, and as Trump's turnout paradox energizes Democrats. With the Democrats widening their trust edge on health costs, the election could hinge on who shows up.
